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HomeMy WebLinkAbout02160029_Sec05-13 Population and Housing Project Impacts West Ming Specific Plan - Draft EIR Population and Housing Michael Brandman Associates 5.13-1 H:\Client (PN-JN)\0216\02160029\DEIR 9-1\02160029_Sec05-13 Population and Housing.doc 5.13 - Population and Housing 5.13.1 - Introduction This section of the Draft EIR includes an examination of the existing population from new homes and employment, and housing in the area and analyze the potential impacts of the proposed project on population and housing. The project is located within the City of Bakersfield and unincorporated Kern County. The site is currently used for agriculture and oil production. Information in this section is based upon the following documents: • Kern County Population Projections, State of California Department of Finance, 2004. These projections are available for review at the City of Bakersfield Planning Department at 1715 Chester Avenue, Bakersfield, California 93301. • State of California, Department of Finance, May 2006. E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State, 2001-2006, with 2000 Benchmark. • Kern County Regional Housing Allocation Plan, Kern Council of Governments, 2001. This document is available for review at the City of Bakersfield Planning Department at 1715 Chester Avenue, Bakersfield, California 93301. • City of Bakersfield General Plan Housing Element, City of Bakersfield, 2003. This document is available for review at the City of Bakersfield Planning Department at 1715 Chester Avenue, Bakersfield, California 93301. • City of Bakersfield Population Projections, City of Bakersfield Planning Department, May 2004. These projections are available for review at the City of Bakersfield Planning Department at 1715 Chester Avenue, Bakersfield, California 93301. 5.13.2 - Environmental Setting Population projections throughout California are provided by the State Department of Finance. Based on the population projections, the State Department of Housing and Community Development projects housing growth. These agencies provide the population and housing growth estimate for the state as a whole as well as each county within the state. The local regional agency for each county (i.e., Kern Council of Governments) receives these estimates and works with the cities within their county to provide projections for the cities and unincorporated areas of their county. Following is a discussion of the population and housing projections for Kern County and City of Bakersfield. Population According to the State of California, Department of Finance, the year 2000 population of Kern County was 664,694 and the City of Bakersfield population was 246,889. The City’s population represented approximately 37 percent of the population in Kern County. In January 2006, the population of Kern County was 779,869 and the City’s population was 311,824 (State of California, Department of Finance 2006). The City’s population represented approximately 40 percent of the Project Impacts Population and Housing West Ming Specific Plan - Draft EIR 5.13-2 Michael Brandman Associates H:\Client (PN-JN)\0216\02160029\DEIR 9-1\02160029_Sec05-13 Population and Housing.doc population in Kern County. The population projections for Kern County are located in Table 5.13-1 and provided by the State of California, Department of Finance. The City of Bakersfield projections are based on an annual 2 percent growth. Table 5.13-1: Kern County and City of Bakersfield Population Projections Actuala Projection Years Locality 2000 2006 2010 2020 2030 Kern County 664,694 779,869 808,808 950,112 1,114,878 Bakersfield 246,889 311,824 337,528 411,445 501,549 a State of California, Department of Finance May 2006. Estimate based on an annual 2 percent growth within the City. Michael Brandman Associates, 2006. As shown above the City of Bakersfield population will represent approximately 45 percent of the population in Kern County. Housing According to the State of California, Department of Finance, the number of housing units in the year 2000 within Kern County was 231,567 and in the City of Bakersfield, there were 83,441 housing units. The City’s housing represented approximately 36 percent of the population in Kern County. In January 2006, Kern County had 262,934 housing units and the City of Bakersfield had 108,242 housing units (State of California, Department of Finance 2006). The City’s housing represented approximately 41 percent of the total housing units in Kern County. The housing projections for Kern County are projected based on growth rate of population and the City of Bakersfield housing unit growth is based on a 2 percent growth per year. Table 5.13-2: Kern County and City of Bakersfield Housing Projections Actuala Projection Years Locality 2000 2006 2010 2020 2030 Kern County 231,567 262,934 281,774 331,002 388,404 Bakersfield 83,441 108,242 117,165 142,823 174,100 a State of California, Department of Finance May 2006. Estimate based on an annual 2 percent growth within the City. Michael Brandman Associates, 2006. As shown above the City of Bakersfield will have approximately 45 percent of the total housing units in Kern County. Project Impacts West Ming Specific Plan - Draft EIR Population and Housing Michael Brandman Associates 5.13-3 H:\Client (PN-JN)\0216\02160029\DEIR 9-1\02160029_Sec05-13 Population and Housing.doc 5.13.3 - Thresholds of Significance According to Appendix G of the State CEQA Guidelines, a project would normally have a significant effect on the environment if a project: • Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly by proposing new homes and d businesses or indirectly through extension of roads or other infrastructure? • Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere? • Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere? 5.13.4 - Project Impacts and Mitigation Measures Population and Housing Impact 5.13.A: The proposed project will induce substantial population growth in the project area. Implementation of the proposed project would result in an increase in residential population of 19,020 persons. In addition, the project includes employment uses such as commercial and industrial that would generate approximately 4,226 employment opportunities. This increase in residential and employment population is considered substantial. The buildout of the proposed project is projected to occur in approximately 20 years. Based on the assumed 2 percent growth rate for the City as shown in Table 5.13-1, the City would increase its population by approximately 189,725 persons from 2006 to 2030. The proposed project would represent approximately 10 percent of the City’s total population growth. The project’s growth is considered substantial; however, this project growth in population could be considered part of population growth projected by the City. Therefore, the project growth could be considered consistent with the City’s anticipated growth. Mitigation Measures No mitigation measures are required. Level of Significance After Mitigation Less than significant. Impact 5.13.B: The proposed project will not displace a substantial number of existing housing or people. The project site does not contain any housing units; therefore, implementation of the proposed project would not displace existing housing units. In addition, the project site includes agricultural activities and oil production facilities. These uses currently provide employment opportunities. The proposed project may retain the oil production activities on the project site and may not affect these employment opportunities. The employment opportunities for the existing agricultural uses are Project Impacts Population and Housing West Ming Specific Plan - Draft EIR 5.13-4 Michael Brandman Associates H:\Client (PN-JN)\0216\02160029\DEIR 9-1\02160029_Sec05-13 Population and Housing.doc seasonal based on the crops that are grown. Therefore, no substantial long-term population would be displaced with the implementation of the proposed project. Mitigation Measures No mitigation measures are required. Level of Significance After Mitigation No impact.