HomeMy WebLinkAboutAttachment 7 - Urban Decay StudyWest Ming Specific Plan
Response to Comments
on the Draft Environmental Impact Report
Michael Brandman Associates
H:\Client (PN-JN)\0216\02160029\RTC\Attachments.doc
Attachment 7: Urban Decay Study
URBAN DECAY STUDY
FOR
WEST MING SPECIFIC PLAN
November 15, 2006
Prepared for:
Jones & Beardsley, P.C.
Prepared by:
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
24835 E. La Palma Avenue, Suite I
Yorba Linda, CA 92887
Telephone: (714) 692-9596
Fax: (714) 692-9597
Email: info@natelsondale.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SECTION PAGE
I. INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................1
II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................................7
II-A. EXISTING CONDITIONS IN WEST MING TRADE AREA...................................................................7
II-B. IMPACT OF PROPOSED PROJECT.............................................................................................7
II-C. CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF PROJECTS PLANNED IN THE RETAIL TRADE AREA................................8
II-D. SUMMARY OF CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTIONS USED IN THIS ANALYSIS......................................12
III. RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS – WEST MING TRADE AREA....................................................13
III-A. MARKET AREA BOUNDARIES..................................................................................................13
III-B. HOUSEHOLD AND INCOME LEVELS.........................................................................................14
III-C. RETAIL SALES DEMAND.........................................................................................................14
III-D. DISTRIBUTION OF RESIDENT RETAIL EXPENDITURES...............................................................15
III-E. CAPTURE RATE ANALYSIS.....................................................................................................16
III-F. TOTAL POTENTIAL RETAIL SALES VOLUMES............................................................................16
III-G. SUPPORTABLE RETAIL SPACE...............................................................................................17
IV. RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS – WEST MING REGIONAL TRADE AREA................................21
IV-A. MARKET AREA BOUNDARIES..................................................................................................21
IV-B. HOUSEHOLD AND INCOME LEVELS.........................................................................................23
IV-C. RETAIL SALES DEMAND.........................................................................................................24
IV-D. DISTRIBUTION OF RESIDENT RETAIL EXPENDITURES...............................................................24
IV-E. CAPTURE RATE ANALYSIS.....................................................................................................25
IV-F. TOTAL POTENTIAL RETAIL SALES VOLUMES............................................................................28
IV-G. SUPPORTABLE RETAIL SPACE...............................................................................................29
APPENDIX A: RETAIL DEMAND MODEL – WEST MING TRADE AREA
APPENDIX B: RETAIL DEMAND MODEL – WEST MING REGIONAL TRADE AREA
APPENDIX C: RETAIL INVENTORY – WEST MING TRADE AREA
APPENDIX D: SUPPLEMENTAL CUMULATIVE PROJECTS LIST
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 1
I. INTRODUCTION
This study evaluates the potential for the retail components of the West Ming Specific Plan to
cause “urban decay” in the retail trade area of the project site. Specifically, the study evaluates
the extent to which the proposed project would have competitive impacts on existing retail
facilities in the trade area (as defined below) and consequently have the potential to result in
urban decay1.
Based on information provided by the project applicant, the commercial portions of the project
are assumed to include a total of approximately 525,890 square feet of retail space. The
commercial-retail portion of the project would be developed in various phases starting in year
2010 through buildout in 2027. The proposed development schedule is shown below.2
Land Use District
Total
Commercial (4)/
Industrial
Square Feet (1)
Estimated
Retail
Portion (2)
Assumed
Retail
Square Feet
Start Date Buildout
Year
Town Center 331,200 90% 298,080 2010 2020
Special Use 1,135,000 10% 113,500 2022 2027
Commercial (3), (4)
West Ming General
Commercial area (WM-GC)
83,028
90% 74,725
2015
2020
West Ming Office
Commercial area (WM-OC)
395,852
10% 39,585
2021
2027
Total 1,945,080 N/A 525,890 N/A N/A
Source: Hogle-Ireland, Inc.
Notes: (1) Per the Specific Plan.
(2) As estimated by the project applicant.
(3) The Specific Plan allows for 478,880 square feet of commercial space in the Commercial (office,
service and retail) land use category. Based on estimates provided by the project applicant, we have
assumed that 83,028 square feet of this total will be developed in the West Ming General Commercial
Land Use area (WM-GC) and 395,852 square feet will the developed in the West Ming Office
Commercial Land Use area (WM-OC).
(4) For purposes of this schedule, the term “commercial” includes potential development in both retail
and commercial office categories.
Assuming the retail space in each land use category is built out in equal increments between
the indicated start and buildout dates, the cumulative amount of retail space that would be built
in five-year increments is shown below:
Year
2010 2015 2020 2025 2027
Total Square Feet 27,098 175,043372,805476,747525,890
Source: Hogle-Ireland, Inc.; The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG)
1 Urban decay, for purposes of this study, means physical effects including, but not limited to, facilities that are poorly
maintained and in disrepair, deterioration of buildings and improvements, visual and aesthetic impacts related to
physical deterioration, increased instances of property crimes including graffiti, and increased demand for police and
emergency response services, which result from individual or cumulative increases in retail closures and consequent
long-term vacancies.
2 At this time, information regarding potential types of retail tenants is unavailable.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 2
The urban decay analysis addresses two key issues:
1. The extent to which there would be sufficient demand to support new retail space without
negatively impacting the long-term market shares of existing retailers in the trade area; and
2. The cumulative impacts related to all major retail projects planned for development in the
trade area.
Overview of Methodology
The analysis forecasts the total retail “purchasing power” for residents within the trade area, and
uses this projection of total demand as the basis for determining the extent to which the
proposed project could be supported in the market area without negatively impacting existing
businesses. The analysis includes the following major steps:
1. ESTIMATE THE CURRENT POTENTIAL DEMAND FOR RETAIL SALES IN THE
TRADE AREA, based on existing demographics;
2. ESTIMATE THE PORTION OF TOTAL TRADE AREA DEMAND THAT COULD
REALISTICALLY BE “CAPTURED” BY RETAIL FACILITIES IN THE PRIMARY
MARKET AREA, based on an evaluation of the amounts and locations of competitive
retail facilities outside of the primary market area;
3. FORECAST FUTURE (22-YEAR) GROWTH IN THE AMOUNT OF SUPPORTABLE
SALES, based on projected increases in the trade area’s resident population;
4. TRANSLATE POTENTIAL RETAIL SALES INTO SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET OF
RETAIL SPACE, based on standard sales per square foot factors by individual retail
category; and
5. COMPARE THIS “POTENTIAL” DEMAND FOR RETAIL SPACE TO THE ACTUAL
AMOUNT OF RETAIL SPACE IN THE PRIMARY MARKET AREA, based on estimates
from a field survey completed by the consultant.
Description of the Trade Areas Evaluated in this Study
This report essentially provides two separate but closely-related analyses: one which evaluates
the potential impacts of the proposed project itself and one which evaluates the potential
cumulative impacts related to all major retail projects planned in west Bakersfield. For the
reasons described below, the study considers different trade areas for the two different
analyses.
Trade Area for West Ming Project. The retail components of the West Ming project will be
neighborhood- and community-scale shopping facilities. According to the International Council
of Shopping Centers (ICSC), the trade area for community-scale retail facilities3 is typically
defined by a 3- to 6-mile radius. For purposes of this analysis, we have defined the project’s
retail trade area by a 5-mile radius centered around the proposed project site. Our choice of a
5-mile radius (rather than a smaller 3-mile radius) reflects existing retail development
concentrations in the vicinity of the West Ming project – i.e., there is currently very little retail
development within a 3-mile radius but significant retail development within a 5-mile radius.
3 Defined by the ICSC to be between 100,000 and 350,000 square feet. ICSC Shopping Center Definitions.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 3
Thus, the 5-mile radius effectively encompasses all existing retail development that would
potentially be competitively impacted by the proposed project.
Trade Area for Cumulative Impacts Analysis. As described in Section II-C of this report, a
number of the cumulative projects considered in this analysis are regional-scale shopping
facilities. As such, they will individually and collectively draw market support from a significantly
larger geographic area than the smaller-scale retail facilities planned within the West Ming
Specific Plan. It is therefore appropriate to consider a larger trade area for the cumulative
impacts analysis than for the project-specific analysis. For purposes of evaluating cumulative
impacts, a Regional Trade Area has been defined based on Regional Statistical Areas (RSAs)
defined by the Kern Council of Governments (“COG”). This trade area is broken down into the
following four sub-areas.
1. Primary Market Area (PMA): A five-mile radius centered around the West Ming project
site (i.e., the same trade area considered for the project-specific analysis). The PMA is
the primary focus of this analysis – i.e., where the analysis evaluates the potential for
urban decay.
2. Secondary Market Area (SMA): This market area includes the Metro North of the River
(N.O.R.) and Metro Southwest (SW) RSAs combined. In order to avoid double counting,
the PMA’s population is “netted out” of the SMA. In addition, the SMA has been
truncated to exclude any of the census tracts in the Metro N.O.R. RSA that are east of
Highway 99 (see Section IV-A on Page 21 for further explanation).
3. Regional Market Area – Northwest (RMA-NW): This includes the Greater Shafter RSA,
which represents the northern and northwestern portion of the trade area. It includes the
communities of Buttonwillow and Shafter.
4. Regional Market Area – West (RMA-W): This market area includes the Greater
Taft/Maricopa RSA, which represents the westernmost portion of the trade area. It
includes the communities of Taft, Ford City and Maricopa.
Figure I-1 on the following page shows the trade area boundaries for the project-specific
analysis (i.e., West Ming as a stand-along project) while the larger trade area for the cumulative
impacts analysis is shown on Figure I-2 on Page 5.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan Page - 4
Figure I-1: Trade Area for Project-Specific Analysis
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan Page - 5
Figure I-2: Regional Trade Area for Cumulative Impacts Analysis
= PMA
= SMA
= SMA = RMA-NW = RMA-NW
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 6
What this Study Provides
Since this study is being completed as part of the Environmental Impact Report (EIR) process
for the proposed project, pursuant to Section 15131 of the CEQA Guidelines, it focuses on the
question of whether economic changes resulting from the project would cuase, directly or
indirectly, significant changes in the environment. For purposes of this analysis prepared for
this project, The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) has established the following criteria to
determine if the project’s market impacts would create a significant physical change in a market
area:
• A diversion of sales from existing retail facilities severe enough to result in business
closings and subsequent long-term vacancies; and/or
• Business closures significant enough in scale (e.g., in terms of the total square footage
affected and/or the loss of key “anchor” tenants) to affect the viability of existing
shopping centers or districts, resulting in subsequent long term vacancies.
Within the above context, the analysis includes a description of the “baseline” condition of
existing retail facilities located in the cities of the trade area. In particular, TNDG completed a
detailed inventory of existing retail stores and vacancies in the PMA.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 7
II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
As part of this analysis, TNDG completed an inventory and “windshield” survey of all retail
businesses in the West Ming Trade Area (i.e., the 5-mile radius examined for the project-
specific analysis, which is also the Primary Market Area for the cumulative impacts analysis).
The main purpose of this survey was to provide a quantitative and qualitative measure of the
overall “health” of the retail climate in the West Ming Trade Area. A summary of these findings
is provided in Appendix C.
II-A. EXISTING CONDITIONS IN WEST MING TRADE AREA
Based on this field survey, there do not appear to be indications of economic or physical decline
in the West Ming Trade Area. TNDG estimates that retail space in the West Ming Trade Area,
as of September 2006, totals approximately 2.18 million square feet, which is more than 98%
occupied. The estimated vacancy rate is 1.5%; vacancy rates in relatively healthy retail markets
typically range from 5% to 10%.
II-B. IMPACT OF PROPOSED PROJECT
It is TNDG’s conclusion that the project will not have significant impacts on existing or
reasonably foreseeable future retailers. The analysis supporting this conclusion is summarized
below.
Project Description. The proposed project would include approximately 525,890 square feet
of retail space. Based on the most recent development plans from the applicant, the proposed
project’s retail space would likely start development in year 2010 with buildout projected in
2027. At this time, no information is available regarding the potential types of tenants that would
ultimately locate at the project.
Comparison of Existing Supply and Demand of Retail Space. TNDG’s demand analysis
indicates existing (year 2006) potential market support for $718.8 million in total retail sales in
the West Ming Trade Area, which translates into approximately 2.5 million square feet of
supportable retail space. Based on estimates from the field survey completed by TNDG, there
is approximately 2.1 million square feet of retail space in the West Ming Trade Area. Thus,
TNDG estimates that the West Ming Trade Area could currently support approximately 400,000
square feet of additional retail space over and above the existing inventory.
Projected Growth in Demand. Within the West Ming Trade Area, potential demand for new
retail space is projected to grow to approximately 1.59 million square feet by 2020, and to
approximately 2.27 million square feet by 2028 (one year after project buildout). See Table II-1,
on the following page, for a breakdown of new supportable square feet of space by retail
category from 2006 to 2028.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 8
Table II-1:
Potential Demand for NEW Retail Space by Retail Category
West Ming Trade Area
Year
Retail Category 2006 2010 2014 2020 2026 2028
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 0 15,841 32,870 61,716 88,734 98,168
General Merchandise 16,330 59,231 105,351 183,478 256,650 282,200
Furniture/Appliances 50,919 62,799 75,571 97,206 117,469 124,544
Specialty 61,245 104,807 151,637 230,965 305,263 331,206
Subtotal 128,494 242,678 365,428 573,365 768,115 836,118
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 56,788 117,063 181,861 291,627 394,432 430,330
Eating and Drinking 0 35,641 73,956 138,861 199,651 220,877
Subtotal 56,788 152,704 255,817 430,488 594,083 651,207
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 151,562 198,152 248,237 333,081 412,544 440,291
Service Stations N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A N/A
Subtotal 151,562 198,152 248,237 333,081 412,544 440,291
Services Space 0 25,669 53,264 100,009 143,790 159,077
Allowance for standard vacancy 92,928 107,789 123,765 150,828 176,175 185,026
Total 429,772 726,992 1,046,512 1,587,771 2,094,706 2,271,718
Source: The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG). See Appendix A for detailed calculations.
Conclusion. The proposed project would result in a net increase of 525,890 square feet of
retail space. Residual market support for retail space in the West Ming Trade Area in 2020 (the
buildout year for the first phase of the project’s retail components) is projected to be 1.59 million
square feet. Thus, all of the proposed project’s retail space (525,890 square feet) would
actually be supportable by 2020, even though retail buildout of the project is not expected to
happen until 2027. By 2028 (one year after project buildout), residual market support for retail
space is projected to reach approximately 2.27 million square feet, indicating that the proposed
project would absorb less than 25% of the demand for new retail space over this time period.
Based on these findings, TNDG believes that it is unlikely that the retail components of the
project would result in economic impacts to existing stores in the trade area, and that it is
therefore unlikely that any existing retail stores will be forced to close due to the project.
II-C. CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF PROJECTS PLANNED IN THE RETAIL TRADE AREA
Whereas the above section examines potential impacts strictly related to the proposed project,
this section evaluates the cumulative impacts to the market based on all known, pending and
reasonably foreseeable future retail development projects (including the proposed project
evaluated in this analysis) in the larger Regional Trade Area. Table II-2 shows the total square
feet of planned retail projects that could be developed over the next twenty years. As shown on
the table, the square footages of planned shopping centers outside the PMA are also taken into
account. The square footages of these external projects have been discounted by a percentage
factor in order to account for the fact that the PMA will only capture a share of retail demand
from these areas. This analysis uses these same percentage shares to “discount” the planned
retail space for areas outside of the PMA. (See Sections IV-A and IV-E for a detailed discussion
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 9
of the trade area boundaries and the projected “capture rates” of resident retail demand from
areas outside of the PMA).
Table II-2:
Planned and Pending Retail Projects
West Ming Retail Trade Area
Planned/ Major Square Adjustment AdjustedOpening
Pending Projects Location Tenants Feet (SF)Factor (1) SF Date
Primary Market Area
Brimhall Square 9500 Brimhall Rd N/A 80,998100% 80,9982006
Shopping Center 3015 Calloway Dr N/A 50,800100% 50,8002006-12
Shops at Riverwalk 10300-11150 Stockdale Hwy N/A 335,000100% 335,0002006-12
River Oaks Plaza SWC of Stockdale Hwy /
Buena Vista Rd N/A 130,000100% 130,0002006-12
Gosford Village 4949-5677 Gosford Wal-Mart 699,996100% 699,9962006-12
Panama / Gosford NWC of Panama Ln / Gosford
Rd N/A 700,000100% 700,0002012-20
Stockdale Ranch West Bakersfield N/A 323,433100% 323,4332020
West Ming Southwest Bakersfield N/A 372,805100% 372,8052020
West Ming Southwest Bakersfield N/A 153,085100% 153,0852027
Secondary Market Area – Metro SW
Warehouse Club 4900 Panama Ln Costco 151,00035% 52,8502006
Palms SEC of Panama Ln. / Stine RdN/A 46,35135% 16,2232006
Major Retail Center 6200-6400 Colony Wal-Mart 440,00035% 154,0002006-12
Secondary Market Area – Metro N.O.R.
Winco Foods Center 4200 Coffee Rd Winco 140,00035% 49,0002005
Retail Store 5500 Landco Dr Sam's Club 153,27135% 53,6452006-12
TOTAL – 2012 2,227,416N/A 1,622,512N/A
TOTAL – 2020 3,623,654N/A 3,018,750N/A
TOTAL – 2027 3,776,739N/A 3,171,835N/A
Source: City of Bakersfield Planning Department; Kern County Planning Department; Hogle Ireland; TNDG.
Notes:
(1) Adjustment factors are used to account for the fact that the PMA will only capture a share of retail demand
from areas outside of the PMA. The adjustment factors, used to discount the planned square feet of retail
space outside of the PMA, are equal to the estimated percentage capture rates of resident retail demand in
these areas. See Section IV-E for further detail.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 10
As shown in Table II-2, by 2028, approximately 2.8 million square feet of retail space is planned
to be built in the PMA. An additional 930,622 square feet of new retail space is planned in the
Secondary Market Area (SMA). Since the new space in the SMA would largely be supported by
residents living outside the PMA, the SMA retail projects would have a less-than-direct
competitive impact on the PMA. This analysis “discounts” the SMA projects based on a factor
of 35% (see discussion above in Section II-C on Page 8 on how this factor was derived). In
other words, the 930,622 square feet of new space in the SMA would have the equivalent
impact of 325,718 square feet of space built in the PMA itself. Thus, the total effective amount
of planned projects affecting the PMA is approximately 3.17 million square feet, taking into
account the 2.8 million square feet of projects in the PMA itself and the 325,718 square feet of
“equivalent” projects in the SMA.
As shown in Table II-3, on the following page, demand for new retail space in 2028 is projected
to reach 3.44 million square feet4. Thus, even after development of the listed planned and
pending projects, there would still be residual market support for an additional 273,000 square
feet of retail space in the PMA. These projections indicate that the planned and pending
projects do not have the potential to represent a significant cumulative impact to existing retail
businesses. It should be noted, however, that if all of the planned/pending retail space were
developed according to current development plans, the market would be slightly overbuilt in
2020. Based on existing development plans, as shown in Table II-2, there could potentially be
3.0 million “adjusted” square feet of retail space built in the PMA and SMA by 2020. As shown
in Table II-3, demand for new retail space is projected to reach approximately 2.6 million square
feet. Any potential impacts, however, to existing retailers would only be temporary in nature,
given the continued growth in the market and thus would not be cumulatively significant. In just
four years, by 2024, demand for new retail space is projected to reach approximately 3.0 million
square feet, which would be enough to fully support the potential “adjusted” retail space planned
in the PMA and SMA. Further, a more likely cumulative scenario is that infrastructure
constraints and retail market conditions would result in a more gradual buildout of planned retail
development, such that the pace of retail development would more closely follow the growth in
retail demand. Under this scenario, there is less potential for overbuilt conditions to occur, and
consequently a reduced potential for building vacancies and urban decay to follow.
As shown in Appendix D, there are other lands, which because of their zoning potentially could
be developed for retail uses in the PMA and SMA over the next twenty years. We have not
assumed the retail development of these lands in the cumulative analysis, however, because to
do so would be highly speculative at this point in time. For example, some of these projects
have just recently had specific zoning approved for retail uses, but do not have project site plans
or other entitlements required for retail development. Thus, while we do not ignore these
projects, attempting to predict whether actual retail projects will ultimately be proposed and
developed, estimating the square feet of retail development that might ultimately be developed
and/or the timing of the potential development, would be speculative at best. As such, it is
currently not possible to identify which retail categories could possibly become overbuilt, or to
identify existing businesses in those categories which might be forced to close if the potential
retail components of these projects are ultimately developed. Therefore, any attempt to identify
4 The demand for new retail space in Table II-3 is based on the Regional Trade Area, as shown on Figure I-2 and
discussed on page 2, which was defined for purposes of evaluating the cumulative impacts of known pending and
reasonably foreseeable future retail development projects. It differs from the demand estimates in Table II-1, which
are based on the West Ming Trade Area boundaries for purposes of evaluating market support solely for the
proposed project. The reason for the difference is that a number of the projects on the cumulative list are regional in
scale and thus would draw market support from a larger trade area than the smaller-scale retail facilities proposed
within the West Ming project.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 11
specific vacancies which might possibly result, or to determine the potential for physical
deterioration or urban decay, would be speculative in this context. For purposes of evaluating
CEQA impacts, it is not required or valid to engage in speculative analysis. Rather, we assume
that these potential, but yet unplanned, retail sites would be developed only if and when future
demand dictates, which assumption is consistent with existing industry customs and practice.
Summarizing the above, it is TNDG’s overall conclusion that there would be no significant
cumulative impacts to existing or reasonably foreseeable retail facilities in the trade area.
Table II-3:
Potential Demand for NEW Retail Space by Category
Within PMA, Reflecting Capture of Regional Demand
Year
Retail Category 2006 2010 2014 2020 2026 2028
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 31,832 50,281 83,860 122,978 161,031 174,180
General Merchandise 161,074 211,041 301,984 407,929 510,990 546,601
Furniture/Appliances 91,002 104,839 130,023 159,362 187,902 197,763
Specialty 208,217 258,953 351,295 458,870 563,516 599,675
Subtotal 492,125 625,114 867,162 1,149,139 1,423,439 1,518,219
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 152,820 217,783 330,860 461,816 587,360 630,876
Eating and Drinking 13,766 52,342 120,885 199,056 274,082 300,078
Subtotal 166,587 270,126 451,745 660,872 861,441 930,954
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware
176,239 224,260 305,140 397,862 485,812 516,355
Service Stations N/AN/AN/AN/A N/A N/A
Subtotal 176,239 224,260 305,140 397,862 485,812 516,355
Services Space 17,007 45,462 95,916 154,299 210,581 230,064
Allowance for standard vacancy 125,701 142,175 171,386 205,186 237,770 249,050
Total 977,6581,307,1361,891,3492,567,358 3,219,044 3,444,642
Source: The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG). See Appendix B for detailed calculations.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 12
II-D. SUMMARY OF CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTIONS USED IN THIS ANALYSIS
The final estimates of potential demand for new retail space, as shown in Table II-1 and II-2, are
based partly on two assumptions that TNDG believes are relatively conservative. These are
summarized below. We have used these analytically conservative assumptions in order to err
on the side of overestimating rather than underestimating potential impacts of the proposed
project. In actuality, the levels of available market demand to support new retail facilities in the
West Ming Trade Area may be higher than indicated in this report.
1. Unadjusted Household Income Estimates. TNDG’s assumptions regarding resident
household income levels are conservative in two respects. First, we have assumed that
household income levels will remain constant in real dollar terms. That is, we have
assumed that household income levels will just keep pace with the changes in the
overall price level (inflation). Second, according to the Center for the Continuing Study
of the California Economy, the Census (and derivative data sources such as the Claritas
reports used for this analysis) underreports income by an average of 13%. However, we
have not attempted to account for this underreporting by adjusting the average
household income figures. Based on these two sets of assumptions, this study provides
a relatively conservative estimate of Household income levels, which in turn provides a
relatively conservative estimate of trade area’s retail expenditure potentials.
2. Visitor and Business Spending. TNDG’s estimates of potential support for new retail
space are based solely on resident/household demand; the demand estimates do not
include visitors and businesses as potential sources of market support. To account for
potential visitor and business spending, retail market analyses often apply a factor (e.g.,
5% to 10%) to the total income of trade area residents in order to account for these
sources of market support. Undoubtedly, the significant volume of travelers passing
through Bakersfield represents another segment of market support for trade area
retailers. By not including potential visitors and businesses segments in the retail market
demand estimates, we have potentially underestimated the level of market support for
the proposed project (and the cumulative projects) by 5-10%.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 13
III. RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS – WEST MING TRADE AREA
This section examines potential retail demand associated with the population residing in the
market area that would be served by the proposed project. The analysis projects future retail
demand of residents in the market area that would shop at the proposed retail facilities.
III-A. MARKET AREA BOUNDARIES
For purposes of the project-specific analysis, the trade area boundaries have been defined by a
5-mile radius centered around the proposed project site. According to the International Council
of Shopping Centers (ICSC), this area corresponds to the anticipated trade area for community-
scale retail facilities5 likely to be developed at the proposed project site. This Trade Area is
referred to herein as the “West Ming Trade Area” (WMTA). The market area boundaries are
shown on Figure III-1 below.
Figure III-1: West Ming Trade Area
5 Defined by the ICSC to be between 100,000 and 350,000 square feet. ICSC Shopping Center Definitions.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 14
III-B. HOUSEHOLD AND INCOME LEVELS
The number of households in the WMTA is projected as follows:
Table III-1:
Household Projections by Year
West Ming Trade Area
Market Area
Projected
2006
Households
Projected
2010
Households
Projected
2014
Households
Projected
2020
Households
Projected
2026
Households
Projected
2028
Households
5-mile radius 31,649 35,40339,43846,27552,677 54,913
Total 31,649 35,40339,43846,27552,677 54,913
Source: Claritas; Kern Council of Governments (COG); TNDG
The above projections assume an average annual growth rate of 2.5% between 2006 and 2028.
The projections for 2006 to 2010 are from Claritas, a national demographic research services
firm. Projections for the 2010 to 2028 time period are based on household projections provided
by Kern COG.6
Average household income levels in the WMTA are estimated as follows:
Table III-2:
Average Household Income
West Ming Trade Area
Market Area 2006 HH Income
5-mile radius $82,301
Source: Claritas, TNDG
The indicated estimates of household income were obtained from Claritas. The analysis
conservatively assumes that the average household income levels in the trade area will remain
constant in real dollar terms. Also, according to the Center for the Continuing Study of the
California Economy, the Census (and derivative data sources such as Claritas) underreports
money income by an average of 13%. However, in keeping with the analytically conservative
nature of this study, we have not attempted to account for this underreporting by adjusting the
average household income figures.
III-C. RETAIL SALES DEMAND
Household and income characteristics are the primary determinants of potential dollars
available for purchases of goods and services in a market area. The analysis assumes that
trade area residents will, on average, spend 37.7% of their income on retail purchases. 7 These
factors are based on data from the National Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) for
households with comparable income levels to those in the WMTA.
6 The growth projections for the WMTA for 2011 to 2028 are based on Kern COG projections for the census tracts
that are contained within the 5-mile radius that makes up the WMTA.
7 This percentage factor is derived from data provided by the National Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES), Bureau
of Labor Statistics (BLS), and reflects the fact that the portion of income spent on retail goods varies based on
household income levels in a market area.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 15
Table III-3:
Income and Retail Demand
West Ming Trade Area
In thousands of constant dollars
Market Area 2006 2010 2014 2020 2026 2028
5-mile radius $2,604,744 $2,913,695 $3,245,826 $3,808,446 $4,335,389 $4,519,387
Total Income $2,604,744 $2,913,695 $3,245,826 $3,808,446 $4,335,389 $4,519,387
5-mile radius $981,989 $1,098,463 $1,223,676 $1,435,784 $1,634,442 $1,703,809
Total Retail Demand $981,989 $1,098,463 $1,223,676 $1,435,784 $1,634,442 $1,703,809
Source: TNDG
III-D. DISTRIBUTION OF RESIDENT RETAIL EXPENDITURES
Projected retail demand from market area residents is disaggregated into various retail
categories based upon historic retail expenditure patterns observed in Kern County. The basic
distribution of retail sales by retail category is projected as follows in Table III-4:
Table III-4:
Distribution of Retail Sales by Category
West Ming Trade Area
Retail Category Distribution
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 4.0%
General Merchandise 13.0%
Furniture/Appliances 3.0%
Specialty 11.0%
Subtotal 31.0%
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 23.0%
Eating and Drinking 9.0%
Subtotal 32.0%
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 10.0%
Auto Dealers 17.0%
Service Stations 10.0%
Subtotal 37.0%
Total 100.0%
Source: State Board of Equalization; TNDG
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 16
III-E. CAPTURE RATE ANALYSIS
Capture rates of the Trade Area demand are projected to be relatively high due to the tendency
of residents to shop within close proximity to their homes, especially for convenience goods.
Generally, it is reasonable to expect that residents will tend to make the vast majority of their
retail purchases locally, provided that a competitive mix of retail stores reflective of consumer
needs is available. Therefore, besides the grocery and building materials/hardware
categories, capture rates are projected at 85%, acknowledging that some amount of Trade Area
residents’ retail expenditures will always “leak” outside of the 5-mile radius defined as the
WMTA.
Table III-5:
Capture Rates of Trade Area Demand
West Ming Trade Area
Retail Category Capture
Rate
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 85.00%
General Merchandise 85.00%
Furniture/Appliances 85.00%
Specialty 85.00%
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 90.00%
Eating and Drinking 85.00%
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 100.00%
Service Stations 85.00%
Total 100.0%
Source: State Board of Equalization; TNDG
III-F. TOTAL POTENTIAL RETAIL SALES VOLUMES
Based on the projected capture rates in the WMTA, Table III-6, on the following page, projects
the potential market area demand in the Trade Area for each retail category. The table
excludes “heavy commercial” categories (e.g. automobile dealers) that are typically not found in
shopping center settings. As shown in Table III-6, incremental demand from 2006 to 2028 for
retail sales in the WMTA is projected to grow in proportion to increases in the number of
households.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 17
Table III-6:
Potential Capture of Sales from
West Ming Trade Area
In thousands of 2006 dollars
Retail Category 2006 2010 2014 2020 2026 2028
Shopper Goods:
Apparel $33,388 $37,348 $41,605 $48,817 $55,571 $57,930
General Merchandise $108,510 $121,380 $135,216 $158,654 $180,606 $188,271
Furniture/Appliances $25,041 $28,011 $31,204 $36,613 $41,678 $43,447
Specialty $91,816 $102,706 $114,414 $134,246 $152,820 $159,306
Subtotal $258,754 $289,445 $322,439 $378,329 $430,675 $448,954
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor $203,272 $227,382 $253,301 $297,207 $338,329 $352,688
Eating and Drinking $75,122 $84,032 $93,611 $109,838 $125,035 $130,341
Subtotal $278,394 $311,414 $346,912 $407,045 $463,364 $483,030
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware $98,199 $109,846 $122,368 $143,578 $163,444 $170,381
Service Stations $83,469 $93,369 $104,012 $122,042 $138,928 $144,824
Subtotal $181,668 $203,216 $226,380 $265,620 $302,372 $315,205
Total $718,816 $804,075 $895,731 $1,050,994 $1,196,411 $1,247,188
Source: TNDG
III-G. SUPPORTABLE RETAIL SPACE
Sales Per Square Foot Standards
Projected sales volume requirements per square foot of retail space by retail category are
derived from typical sales standards from the Urban Land Institute’s Dollars & Cents Publication
and from typical sales per square foot data from representative stores in each retail category.
Table III-7:
Sales per Square Foot Standards for Retail Space
West Ming Trade Area
Retail Category Sales /
Square Foot
Apparel $250
General Merchandise $300
Specialty $250
Furniture/Appliances $250
Food / Liquor $400
Eating / Drinking Establishments $250
Building Materials / Hardware $250
Source: TNDG; Urban Land Institute (ULI)
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 18
Demand for Retail Space
The sales per square foot standards are applied to the gross retail demand numbers (in Table
III-6) for each relevant retail category. This calculation converts potential sales volumes to
supportable square feet of retail space, which is shown in Table III-8 below. Supportable
development levels will increase in the future by virtue of anticipated growth in the number of
households in the WMTA. The supportable square footages for retail stores have been
increased by 10 percent to account for personal and business services space appropriate for
shopping center settings.8 The projections are also translated from net occupied space to gross
demand for new retail buildings, based on an assumed vacancy factor of 5%. This reflects a
typical stabilized vacancy rate in a “healthy” retail market.
Table III-8:
Potential Demand for Retail Space
West Ming Trade Area
Retail Category 2006 2010 2014 2020 2026 2028
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 133,550 149,391 166,420 195,267 222,284 231,718
General Merchandise 361,699 404,601 450,721 528,847 602,019 627,570
Furniture/Appliances 100,163 112,043 124,815 146,450 166,713 173,789
Specialty 367,264 410,825 457,655 536,983 611,281 637,225
Subtotal 962,676 1,076,860 1,199,611 1,407,547 1,602,298 1,670,301
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 508,179 568,455 633,252 743,018 845,824 881,721
Eating and Drinking 300,489 336,130 374,445 439,350 500,139 521,366
Subtotal 808,668 904,584 1,007,697 1,182,368 1,345,963 1,403,087
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 392,795 439,385 489,471 574,314 653,777 681,524
Service Stations N/AN/AN/AN/A N/A N/A
Subtotal 392,795 439,385 489,471 574,314 653,777 681,524
Services Space @ 10% of Retail 216,414 242,083 269,678 316,423 360,204 375,491
Allowance for standard vacancy @ 5% 125,292 140,153 156,129 183,192 208,539 217,390
Total 2,505,845 2,803,066 3,122,586 3,663,844 4,170,780 4,347,792
Source: TNDG
Existing Square Feet of Retail Space
Provided below in Table III-9 is an estimate of the amount of existing square feet of retail space,
broken down by retail category, in the WMTA.9 As shown in the Table, there is approximately
2.18 million square feet of existing retail space (including service-related and vacant space).
8 This factor is based on data from the ULI’s Dollar & Cents of Shopping Centers: 2004 publication and a review of a
proprietary database of shopping center information in a major metropolitan area. Depending on the shopping center
format, the percent of total services space usually ranges from 5% to 30%. For community-scale shopping facilities,
services space typically accounts for 15% of total shopping center space. However, in retaining the analytically
conservative nature of this study, we have utilized a factor of 10% to account for services space.
9 These estimates are from a field survey completed by TNDG in September 2006.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 19
Table III-9:
Estimate of Existing Square Feet of Retail Development
West Ming Trade Area
Retail Category 2006
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 183,018
General Merchandise 345,370
Furniture/Appliances 49,244
Specialty 306,018
Subtotal 883,650
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 451,392
Eating and Drinking 346,847
Subtotal 798,239
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 241,233
Service Stations N/A
Subtotal 241,233
Services Space 256,015
Vacant Space 32,364
Total 2,183,646
Source: TNDG
Demand for New Retail Space
By subtracting the existing amount of retail space (see Table III-9) from the potential
supportable amount (see Table III-8), Table III-10, on the following page, provides the amount of
new retail space that could be supported in the PMA. Currently (as of 2006) the PMA could
support more than 400,000 square feet of additional retail space. Due to continued growth in
the number of households, the PMA would be able to support an additional 2.27 million square
feet of retail space, over and above existing levels, by 2028.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 20
Table III-10:
Cumulative Supportable NEW Square Feet of Retail Space
West Ming Trade Area
Retail Category 2006 2010 2014 2020 2026 2028
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 0 15,841 32,870 61,716 88,734 98,168
General Merchandise 16,330 59,231 105,351 183,478 256,650 282,200
Furniture/Appliances 50,919 62,799 75,571 97,206 117,469 124,544
Specialty 61,245 104,807 151,637 230,965 305,263 331,206
Subtotal 128,494 242,678 365,428 573,365 768,115 836,118
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 56,788 117,063 181,861 291,627 394,432 430,330
Eating and Drinking 0 35,641 73,956 138,861 199,651 220,877
Subtotal 56,788 152,704 255,817 430,488 594,083 651,207
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 151,562 198,152 248,237 333,081 412,544 440,291
Service Stations N/AN/AN/AN/A N/A N/A
Subtotal 151,562 198,152 248,237 333,081 412,544 440,291
Services Space 0 25,669 53,264 100,009 143,790 159,077
Allowance for standard vacancy 92,928 107,789 123,765 150,828 176,175 185,026
Total 429,772 726,992 1,046,512 1,587,771 2,094,706 2,271,718
Source: TNDG
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 21
IV. RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS – REGIONAL TRADE AREA
This section examines potential retail demand associated with the population residing in the
market areas that would be served by the cumulative projects (including the proposed project
evaluated directly in this study) proposed for development in the Regional Trade Area. The
analysis projects future retail demand of residents in the surrounding area that would shop at
the proposed retail facilities.
IV-A. MARKET AREA BOUNDARIES
For purposes of this study, the Regional Trade Area boundaries have been defined based on
Regional Statistical Areas (RSAs) defined by the Kern Council of Governments (“COG”). The
trade area is broken down into the following four sub-areas.
1. Primary Market Area (PMA): A five-mile radius centered around the proposed project
site. The PMA is the primary focus of this analysis – i.e., where the analysis evaluates
the potential for urban decay based on the proposed project.
2. Secondary Market Area (SMA): This market area includes the Metro North of the River
(N.O.R.) and Metro Southwest (SW) RSAs combined. In order to avoid double counting,
the PMA’s population is “netted out” of the SMA. In addition, to SMA has been truncated
to exclude any of the census tracts in the Metro N.O.R. RSA that are east of Highway
99. Households from these census tracts have been excluded primarily for two reasons:
1) Highway 99 represents a “psychological” traffic barrier and 2) the number of existing
and planned shopping centers immediately adjacent on the west and east of Highway
99. For these reasons, it is unlikely that shopping centers in the PMA would attract
many shoppers residing in areas east of Highway 99.
3. Regional Market Area – Northwest (RMA-NW): This includes the Greater Shafter RSA,
which represents the northern and northwestern portion of the trade area. It includes the
communities of Buttonwillow and Shafter.
4. Regional Market Area – West (RMA-W): This market area includes the Greater
Taft/Maricopa RSA, which represents the westernmost portion of the trade area. It
includes the communities of Taft, Ford City and Maricopa.
This overall area corresponds to the anticipated trade area for regional-scale retail facilities
proposed for development in the PMA (see Table II-2 for a cumulative list of planned/pending
retail projects). Although portions of the Greater Shafter and Greater Taft/Maricopa market
areas are significant distances from the PMA, the PMA represents the nearest major retailing
center for residents in these two market areas. Thus, it is reasonable to expect that residents in
the RMA-NW and RMA-W would travel to shopping centers in the PMA for some of their
shopping needs. The overall trade area is referred to herein as the “West Ming Regional Trade
Area” (WMRTA). The market area boundaries are shown on Figure IV-1 on the following page.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan Page - 22
Figure IV-1: West Ming Regional Trade Area
= RMA-W = SMA = RMA-NW = PMA
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 23
IV-B. HOUSEHOLD AND INCOME LEVELS
The number of households in the WMRTA is projected as follows:
Table IV-1:
Household Projections by Year
West Ming Regional Trade Area
Market Area
Projected
2006
Households
Projected
2010
Households
Projected
2014
Households
Projected
2020
Households
Projected
2026
Households
Projected
2028
Households
PMA 31,649 35,40339,43846,27552,677 54,913
SMA 40,352 42,10448,19759,84570,337 73,738
RMA-NW 5,458 8,061 9,161 10,919 12,650 12,860
RMA-W 6,455 6,499 6,684 7,029 7,523 7,736
Total 83,914 92,067 101,332 116,909 132,654 137,750
Source: Claritas; Kern Council of Governments (COG); TNDG
The above projections assume the following average annual growth rates between 2006 and
2028:
PMA - 2.5%
SMA - 2.0%
RMA-NW - 4.0%
RMA-W - 0.8%
The projections of households in the trade area’s PMA are from Claritas10, a national
demographic research services firm. Projections for the remaining market areas are from Kern
COG.
Average household income levels in the WMRTA are estimate as follows:
Table IV-2:
Average Household Income
West Ming Regional Trade Area
Market Area 2006 HH Income
PMA $82,301
SMA $64,607
RMA-NW $42,728
RMA-W $44,840
Source: Claritas, TNDG
The indicated estimates of household income were obtained from Claritas. The analysis
conservatively assumes that the average household income levels in the trade area will remain
10 The Claritas numbers provide projections out to 2011. The growth estimates for the PMA from 2011 to 2028 are
based on the Kern County COG projections for the census tracts that are contained within the 5-mile radius that
makes up the PMA.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 24
constant in real dollar terms. Also, according to the Center for the Continuing Study of the
California Economy, the Census (and derivative data sources such as Claritas) underreports
money income by an average of 13%. However, in keeping with the analytically conservative
nature of this study, we have not attempted to account for this underreporting by adjusting the
average household income figures.
IV-C. RETAIL SALES DEMAND
Household and income characteristics are the primary determinants of potential dollars
available for purchases of goods and services in a market area. The analysis assumes that
trade area residents will, on average, spend 37.7% to 44.9% of their income on retail
purchases.11 These factors are based on data from the National Consumer Expenditure Survey
(CES) for households with comparable income levels to those in the WMRTA.
Table IV-3:
Income and Retail Demand
West Ming Regional Trade Area
In thousands of constant dollars
Market Area 2006 2010 2014 2020 2026 2028
PMA $2,604,744 $2,913,695 $3,245,826 $3,808,446 $4,335,389 $4,519,387
SMA $2,607,000 $2,720,208 $2,975,055 $3,403,896 $3,863,656 $4,021,231
RMA-NW $233,227 $344,430 $391,423 $466,547 $540,528 $549,477
RMA-W $289,441 $291,415 $299,697 $315,180 $337,339 $346,878
Total Income $5,734,413 $6,269,748 $6,912,001 $7,994,070 $9,076,912 $9,436,974
PMA $981,989 $1,098,463 $1,223,676 $1,435,784 $1,634,442 $1,703,809
SMA $1,053,228 $1,098,964 $1,201,922 $1,375,174 $1,560,917 $1,624,577
RMA-NW $104,719 $154,649 $175,749 $209,480 $242,697 $246,715
RMA-W $128,222 $129,097 $132,766 $139,625 $149,441 $153,667
Total Retail Demand $2,268,158 $2,481,173 $2,734,113 $3,160,063 $3,587,497 $3,728,769
Source: TNDG
IV-D. DISTRIBUTION OF RESIDENT RETAIL EXPENDITURES
Projected retail demand from market area residents is disaggregated into various retail
categories based upon historic retail expenditure patterns observed in Kern County. The basic
distribution of retail sales by retail category is projected as follows:
11 Trade area residents are projected to spend the following percentages of their income on retail purchases: PMA
(37.7%), Metro N.O.R./SW (40.4%), Greater Shafter (44.9%), and Greater Taft/Maricopa (44.3%). These
percentages are based on the National Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and
reflect the fact that the portion of income spent on retail goods varies based on household income levels in a market
area.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 25
Table IV-4:
Distribution of Retail Sales by Category
West Ming Regional Trade Area
Retail Category Distribution
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 4.0%
General Merchandise 13.0%
Furniture/Appliances 3.0%
Specialty 11.0%
Subtotal 31.0%
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 25.0%
Eating and Drinking 9.0%
Subtotal 32.0%
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 10.0%
Auto Dealers 17.0%
Service Stations 10.0%
Subtotal 37.0%
Total 100.0%
Source: State Board of Equalization; TNDG
IV-E. CAPTURE RATE ANALYSIS
Primary Market Area Capture Rates
Capture rates of Primary Market Area demand are projected to be relatively high due to the
tendency of residents to shop within close proximity to their homes, especially for convenience
goods. Generally, it is reasonable to expect that residents will tend to make the vast majority of
their retail purchases locally, provided that a competitive mix of retail stores reflective of
consumer needs is available. Therefore, besides the grocery and building materials/hardware
categories, capture rates are projected at 85%, acknowledging that some small amount of PMA
residents’ retail expenditures will always “leak” outside of the 5-mile radius defined as the PMA.
Table IV-5, on the following page, shows the projected capture rates of PMA demand for each
retail category.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 26
Table IV-5:
Capture Rates of Primary Market Area Demand
West Ming Regional Trade Area
Retail Category Capture
Rate
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 85.00%
General Merchandise 85.00%
Furniture/Appliances 85.00%
Specialty 85.00%
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 90.00%
Eating and Drinking 85.00%
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 100.00%
Service Stations 85.00%
Source: TNDG
Secondary Market Area Capture Rates
The PMA’s capture rates of SMA Demand are projected to be significantly lower than those for
the PMA itself, given the relatively longer distances that SMA residents need to travel to shop in
the PMA. In addition, there are existing shopping centers in the SMA that in some cases would
be closer to these residents (see Appendix C, Tables C-2 and C-3). However, once the
proposed project and the other planned/pending retail projects are developed in the PMA, the
market area would include a significant amount of retail space and would be expected to draw
patrons from the SMA. The projected capture rates of SMA demand are shown in Table IV-6 on
the following page. They are expected to increase after 2010 because a number of the planned
retail projects (as shown in the cumulative projects table, Table II-2) would be developed and
operating by this time. As additional shopping centers are developed in the PMA, residents in
the SMA would have a stronger incentive to travel to the PMA for more of their shopping needs,
given the wider variety of shopping establishments that would be available. The 35% capture
rate for shopper goods is approximately equal to the share of total retail space in the Metro
N.O.R. and Metro SW RSAs that will be located in the PMA once all of the planned/pending
retail projects are developed, adjusted to account for the permanent retail leakage outside of the
trade area (see Page 25).12 Capture rates for the remaining categories – convenience and
heavy commercial goods – are adjusted downward to account for the fact that the shoppers
would tend to shop for these goods very close to their place of residence, and would thus be
less likely to travel to the PMA for purchases of these goods.
12 This is recognized as an appropriate method of determining capture rates in secondary market areas for retail
market analyses.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 27
Table IV-6:
Capture Rates of Secondary Market Area Demand
Within PMA
Years
Retail Category 2006-2010 2011-2030
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 30.0% 35.0%
General Merchandise 30.0% 35.0%
Furniture/Appliances 30.0% 35.0%
Specialty 30.0% 35.0%
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 15.0% 20.0%
Eating and Drinking 15.0% 20.0%
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 5.0% 10.0%
Service Stations 2.5% 5.0%
Source: TNDG
Regional Market Area Capture Rates
As shown in Table IV-7, on the following page, the PMA’s capture rates of RMA demand are
projected to be lower than those for the SMA, given the even longer distances residents in these
market areas would need to travel to make retail purchases in the PMA. However, there is a
very limited base of retail establishments in these market areas (see Appendix C, Tables C-2
and C-3), and the Metro N.O.R. and Metro SW (which includes both the PMA and SMA)
represent the nearest market areas with a significant number of shopping centers. Thus, it is
likely that the majority of the existing retail leakage in the RMA communities is captured by retail
facilities in these two RSAs. The capture rates for the two RMAs were first determined by
estimating current retail sales leakage in the RMA-NW and RMA-W. As indicated above, this
existing leakage is likely being captured by retail stores in the Metro N.O.R. and Metro SW
RSAs. To determine the PMA capture rates from 2010 onward (once most of the
planned/pending retail development in the PMA is projected to be built), for the shopper goods
categories, it was assumed that approximately one-half of the estimated existing retail sales
leakage in the RMA-NW and RMA-W could be potentially captured by retail stores in the PMA.
This factor is based on the significant number of regional-scale shopping facilities that could be
potentially be developed in the PMA (as shown in the cumulative projects table, Table II-2)
Capture rates for the remaining categories – convenience and heavy commercial goods – are
adjusted downward to account for the fact that the RMA residents would tend to shop for these
goods very close to their homes, and would thus be less likely to travel to the PMA for
purchases of these goods
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 28
Table IV-7:
Capture Rates of Regional Market Area Demand
Within PMA
Years
2006-2010
Years
2011-2030
Retail Category RMA-NW RMA-W RMA-NW RMA-W
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 5.0% 10.0% 7.5% 15.0%
General Merchandise 5.0% 10.0% 7.5% 15.0%
Furniture/Appliances 5.0% 10.0% 7.5% 15.0%
Specialty 5.0% 10.0% 7.5% 15.0%
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 2.5% 5.0% 5.0% 7.5%
Eating and Drinking 2.5% 5.0% 5.0% 7.5%
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 2.5% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0%
Service Stations 1.5% 1.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Source: TNDG
IV-F. TOTAL POTENTIAL RETAIL SALES VOLUMES
Based on the projected capture rates for each market area, Table IV-8, on the following page,
summarizes the total potential capture of demand in the PMA for each retail category. The table
excludes “heavy commercial” categories (e.g. automobile dealers) that are typically not found in
shopping center settings. As shown in the Table III-8, incremental demand from 2006 to 2028
for retail sales is projected to grow in proportion to increases in the number of households in the
overall trade area.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 29
Table IV-8:
Potential Capture Within PMA of
Sales from Combined Market Areas
In thousands of 2006 dollars
Retail Category 2006 2010 2014 2020 2026 2028
Shopper Goods:
Apparel $46,749 $51,361 $59,756 $69,535 $79,049 $82,336
General Merchandise $151,933 $166,923 $194,206 $225,990 $256,908 $267,591
Furniture/Appliances $35,062 $38,521 $44,817 $52,151 $59,286 $61,752
Specialty $128,559 $141,243 $164,328 $191,222 $217,384 $226,423
Subtotal $362,302 $398,048 $463,107 $538,898 $612,627 $638,102
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor $241,685 $267,670 $312,901 $365,283 $415,500 $432,907
Eating and Drinking $90,153 $99,797 $116,933 $136,476 $155,232 $161,731
Subtotal $331,838 $367,467 $429,834 $501,759 $570,733 $594,638
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware $104,368 $116,373 $136,593 $159,774 $181,761 $189,397
Service Stations $86,696 $96,840 $111,333 $130,401 $148,399 $154,648
Subtotal $191,064 $213,214 $247,927 $290,175 $330,160 $344,045
Total $885,204 $978,729 $1,140,867 $1,330,832 $1,513,519 $1,576,785
Source: TNDG
IV-G. SUPPORTABLE RETAIL SPACE
Sales Per Square Foot Standards
Projected sales volume requirements per square foot of retail space by retail category are
derived from typical sales standards from the Urban Land Institute’s Dollars & Cents Publication
and from typical sales per square foot data from representative stores in each retail category.
Table IV-9:
Sales per Square Foot Standards for Retail Space
West Ming Regional Trade Area
Retail Category Sales/
Square Foot
Apparel $250
General Merchandise / Specialty $300
Specialty $250
Furnishings/Appliances $250
Food / Liquor $400
Eating / Drinking Establishments $250
Building Materials / Hardware $250
Source: TNDG; Urban Land Institute (ULI)
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 30
Demand for Retail Space
The sales per square foot standards are applied to the gross retail demand numbers (in Table
IV-8) for each relevant retail category. This calculation converts potential sales volumes to
supportable square feet of retail space, which is shown in Table IV-10 below. Supportable
development levels will increase in the future by virtue of anticipated growth in the number of
households in the WMRTA. The supportable square footages for retail stores have been
increased by 10 percent to account for personal and business services space appropriate for
shopping center settings. 13 The projections are also translated from net occupied space to
gross demand for new retail buildings, based on an assumed vacancy factor of 5%. This
reflects a typical stabilized vacancy rate in a “healthy” retail market.
Table IV-10:
Potential Demand for Retail Space
Within PMA, Reflecting Capture of Regional Demand
Retail Category 2006 2010 2014 2020 2026 2028
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 186,995205,444239,023278,141 316,194 329,343
General Merchandise 506,444556,411647,354753,299 856,360 891,971
Furniture/Appliances 140,246154,083179,267208,606 237,146 247,007
Specialty 514,235564,971657,313764,888 869,535 905,693
Subtotal 1,347,9201,480,9091,722,9572,004,934 2,279,234 2,374,014
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 604,212669,175782,252913,207 1,038,751 1,082,268
Eating and Drinking 360,613399,189467,732545,903 620,929 646,925
Subtotal 964,8251,068,3641,249,9831,459,110 1,659,680 1,729,193
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 417,472465,493546,373639,095 727,045 757,588
Service Stations N/AN/AN/AN/A N/A N/A
Subtotal 417,472465,493546,373639,095 727,045 757,588
Services Space @ 10% of Retail 273,022301,477351,931410,314 466,596 486,079
Allowance for standard vacancy @ 5% 158,065174,539203,750237,550 270,134 281,414
Total 3,161,3043,490,7824,074,9954,751,004 5,402,690 5,628,288
Source: TNDG
As shown in Table IV-10, the PMA could currently support approximately 3.16 million square
feet of retail space. By 2028, due to continued growth in the number of households, the PMA is
projected to be able to support approximately 5.63 million square feet of retail space.
13 This factor is based on data from the ULI’s Dollar & Cents of Shopping Centers: 2004 publication and a review of a
proprietary database of shopping center information in a major metropolitan area. Depending on the shopping center
format, the percent of total services space ranges from 5% to 30%. For community-scale shopping facilities, services
space typically accounts for 15% of total shopping center space. However, in retaining the analytically conservative
nature of this study, we have utilized a factor of 10% to account for services space.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 31
Existing Square Feet of Retail Space
Provided below in Table IV-11 is an estimate of the amount of existing square feet of retail
space, broken down by retail category, in the PMA of the WMRTA.14 As shown in the Table,
there is approximately to 2.18 million square feet of existing retail space (including service-
related and vacant space).
Table IV-11:
Estimate of Existing Square Feet of Retail Development
West Ming Regional Trade Area - PMA
Retail Category 2006
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 183,018
General Merchandise 345,370
Furniture/Appliances 49,244
Specialty 306,018
Subtotal 883,650
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 451,392
Eating and Drinking 346,847
Subtotal 798,239
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 241,233
Service Stations N/A
Subtotal 241,233
Services Space 256,015
Vacant Space 32,364
Total 2,183,646
Source: TNDG
Demand for New Retail Space
By subtracting the existing amount of retail space (see Table IV-11) from the potential
supportable amount (see Table IV-10), Table IV-12, on the following page, provides the amount
of new retail space that could be supported in the PMA. Currently (as of 2006) the PMA could
support more than 970,000 square feet of additional retail space, taking into account both local
and regional demand. Due to continued growth in the number of households, the PMA would
be able to support an additional 3.44 million square feet of retail space, over and above existing
levels, by 2028.
14 The estimates are from a field survey completed by TNDG in September 2006.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Urban Decay Study for West Ming Ranch Specific Plan
Page - 32
Table IV-12:
Cumulative Supportable NEW Square Feet of Retail Space
Within PMA, Reflecting Capture of Regional Demand
Retail Category 2006 2010 2014 2020 2026 2028
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 31,832 50,281 83,860 122,978 161,031 174,180
General Merchandise 161,074 211,041 301,984 407,929 510,990 546,601
Furniture/Appliances 91,002 104,839 130,023 159,362 187,902 197,763
Specialty 208,217 258,953 351,295 458,870 563,516 599,675
Subtotal 492,125 625,114 867,162 1,149,139 1,423,439 1,518,219
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 152,820 217,783 330,860 461,816 587,360 630,876
Eating and Drinking 13,766 52,342 120,885 199,056 274,082 300,078
Subtotal 166,587 270,126 451,745 660,872 861,441 930,954
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 176,239 224,260 305,140 397,862 485,812 516,355
Service Stations N/AN/AN/AN/A N/A N/A
Subtotal 176,239 224,260 305,140 397,862 485,812 516,355
Services Space 17,007 45,462 95,916 154,299 210,581 230,064
Allowance for standard vacancy 125,701 142,175 171,386 205,186 237,770 249,050
Total 977,658 1,307,136 1,891,349 2,567,358 3,219,044 3,444,642
Source: TNDG
Signature of Principal-in-Charge of this Assignment:
_____________________________________________
Roger A. Dale
Principal
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
APPENDIX A:
RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS
WEST MING TRADE AREA
Table A-1Projected Number of HouseholdsWest Ming Trade AreaArea2006201020142018202020262028Primary Market Area - 5-mile radius31,64935,40339,43843,87346,27552,67754,913Secondary Market Area0000000Regional Market Area - NW0000000Regional Market Area - W0000000 Total31,64935,40339,43843,87346,27552,67754,913Source: Claritas; Kern County Council of Governments (COG); The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG).Table A-2Average Household Income ProjectionsWest Ming Trade AreaIn constant dollars
2006
Primary Market Area - 5-mile radius$82,301Secondary Market Area$0Regional Market Area - NW$0Regional Market Area - W$0Annual Increase Factor 0.00%Area2006201020142018202020262028Primary Market Area - 5-mile radius$82,301$82,301$82,301$82,301$82,301$82,301$82,301Secondary Market Area$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Regional Market Area - NW$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Regional Market Area - W$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Source: Claritas; TNDG
Table A-3Total Income and Potential Retail Sales ProjectionsWest Ming Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 Dollars
PMASMARMA-NWRMA-W
Percent of Income Spent for Retail Goods37.7%40.4%44.9%44.3%Visitor and Business Spending0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Total37.7%40.4%44.9%44.3%Area2006201020142018202020262028Total Income:Primary Market Area - 5-mile radius$2,604,744$2,913,695$3,245,826$3,610,829$3,808,446$4,335,389$4,519,387Secondary Market Area$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Regional Market Area - NW$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Regional Market Area - W$0$0$0$0$0$0$0 Total $2,604,744$2,913,695$3,245,826$3,610,829$3,808,446$4,335,389$4,519,387Potential Retail Sales:Primary Market Area - 5-mile radiusResidents$981,989$1,098,463$1,223,676$1,361,283$1,435,784$1,634,442$1,703,809Business/Visitors$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$981,989$1,098,463$1,223,676$1,361,283$1,435,784$1,634,442$1,703,809Secondary Market AreaResidents$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Business/Visitors$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Regional Market Area - NWResidents$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Business/Visitors$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Regional Market Area - WResidents$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Business/Visitors$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0
Total Potential Retail Sales$981,989$1,098,463$1,223,676$1,361,283$1,435,784$1,634,442$1,703,809Source: TNDG
Table A-4Distribution of Retail Sales by Retail CategoryWest Ming Trade AreaRetail Category
%Distribution 2006
%Distribution 2010
%Distribution 2014
%Distribution 2018
%Distribution 2020
%Distribution 2026
%Distribution 2028
Shopper Goods:Apparel4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%General Merchandise13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%Home Furnishings3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Specialty11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%Subtotal31.00%31.0%31.0%31.0%31.0%31.0%31.0%Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)23.0%23.0%23.0%23.0%23.0%23.0%23.0%Eating and Drinking9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%Subtotal32.00%32.0%32.0%32.0%32.0%32.0%32.0%Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%Auto Dealers and Parts17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%Service Stations10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%Subtotal37.00%37.0%37.0%37.0%37.0%37.0%37.0%
Total100.00%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%Source: TNDG, based on historic trends reported by the State Board of Equalization
Table A-5Projected PMA Demand for Retail Sales by Major Retail CategoryWest Ming Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$39,280$43,939$48,947$54,451$57,431$65,378$68,152General Merchandise$127,659$142,800$159,078$176,967$186,652$212,477$221,495Furniture/Appliances$29,460$32,954$36,710$40,838$43,074$49,033$51,114Specialty$108,019$120,831$134,604$149,741$157,936$179,789$187,419Subtotal$304,416$340,524$379,340$421,998$445,093$506,677$528,181Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$225,857$252,647$281,446$313,095$330,230$375,922$391,876Eating and Drinking$88,379$98,862$110,131$122,515$129,221$147,100$153,343Subtotal$314,236$351,508$391,576$435,610$459,451$523,021$545,219Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$98,199$109,846$122,368$136,128$143,578$163,444$170,381Auto Dealers and Parts$166,938$186,739$208,025$231,418$244,083$277,855$289,648Service Stations$98,199$109,846$122,368$136,128$143,578$163,444$170,381Subtotal$363,336$406,431$452,760$503,675$531,240$604,743$630,409
Total$981,989$1,098,463$1,223,676$1,361,283$1,435,784$1,634,442$1,703,809Source: TNDG
Table A-6Projected SMA Demand for Retail Sales by Major Retail CategoryWest Ming Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$0$0$0$0$0$0$0General Merchandise$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Furniture/Appliances$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Specialty$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Eating and Drinking$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Auto Dealers and Parts$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Service Stations$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Total$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Source: TNDG
Table A-7Projected RMA-NW Demand for Retail Sales by Major Retail CategoryWest Ming Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$0$0$0$0$0$0$0General Merchandise$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Furniture/Appliances$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Specialty$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Eating and Drinking$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Auto Dealers and Parts$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Service Stations$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Total$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Source: TNDG
Table A-8Projected RMA-W Demand for Retail Sales by Major Retail CategoryWest Ming Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$0$0$0$0$0$0$0General Merchandise$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Furniture/Appliances$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Specialty$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Eating and Drinking$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Auto Dealers and Parts$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Service Stations$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Total$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Source: TNDG
Table A-9Potential Capture Rates of PMA DemandWest Ming Trade AreaRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel85%85%85%85%85%85%85%General Merchandise85%85%85%85%85%85%85%Furniture/Appliances85%85%85%85%85%85%85%Specialty85%85%85%85%85%85%85%Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)90%90%90%90%90%90%90%Eating and Drinking85%85%85%85%85%85%85%Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Service Stations85%85%85%85%85%85%85%Source: TNDG
Table A-10Potential Capture Rates of SMA DemandWest Ming Trade AreaRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%General Merchandise0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Furniture/Appliances0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Specialty0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Eating and Drinking0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Service Stations0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Source: TNDG
Table A-11Potential Capture Rates of RMA-NW DemandWest Ming Trade AreaRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%General Merchandise0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Furniture/Appliances0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Specialty0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Eating and Drinking0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Service Stations0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Source: TNDG
Table A-12Potential Capture Rates of RMA-W DemandWest Ming Trade AreaRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%General Merchandise0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Furniture/Appliances0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Specialty0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Eating and Drinking0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Service Stations0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Source: TNDG
Table A-13Potential Capture of Sales from PMAWest Ming Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$33,388$37,348$41,605$46,284$48,817$55,571$57,930General Merchandise$108,510$121,380$135,216$150,422$158,654$180,606$188,271Furniture/Appliances$25,041$28,011$31,204$34,713$36,613$41,678$43,447Specialty$91,816$102,706$114,414$127,280$134,246$152,820$159,306Subtotal$258,754$289,445$322,439$358,698$378,329$430,675$448,954Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$203,272$227,382$253,301$281,786$297,207$338,329$352,688Eating and Drinking$75,122$84,032$93,611$104,138$109,838$125,035$130,341Subtotal$278,394$311,414$346,912$385,924$407,045$463,364$483,030Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$98,199$109,846$122,368$136,128$143,578$163,444$170,381Service Stations$83,469$93,369$104,012$115,709$122,042$138,928$144,824Subtotal$181,668$203,216$226,380$251,837$265,620$302,372$315,205
Total$718,816$804,075$895,731$996,459$1,050,994$1,196,411$1,247,188Source: TNDG
Table A-14Potential Capture of Sales from SMAWest Ming Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$0$0$0$0$0$0$0General Merchandise$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Furniture/Appliances$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Specialty$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Eating and Drinking$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Service Stations$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Total$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Source: TNDG
Table A-15Potential Capture of Sales from RMA-NWWest Ming Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$0$0$0$0$0$0$0General Merchandise$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Furniture/Appliances$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Specialty$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Eating and Drinking$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Service Stations$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Total$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Source: TNDG
Table A-16Potential Capture of Sales from RMA-WWest Ming Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$0$0$0$0$0$0$0General Merchandise$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Furniture/Appliances$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Specialty$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Eating and Drinking$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Service Stations$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Total$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Source: TNDG
Table A-17Potential Capture of Sales from Combined Market AreasWest Ming Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$33,388$37,348$41,605$46,284$48,817$55,571$57,930General Merchandise$108,510$121,380$135,216$150,422$158,654$180,606$188,271Furniture/Appliances$25,041$28,011$31,204$34,713$36,613$41,678$43,447Specialty$91,816$102,706$114,414$127,280$134,246$152,820$159,306Subtotal$258,754$289,445$322,439$358,698$378,329$430,675$448,954Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$203,272$227,382$253,301$281,786$297,207$338,329$352,688Eating and Drinking$75,122$84,032$93,611$104,138$109,838$125,035$130,341Subtotal$278,394$311,414$346,912$385,924$407,045$463,364$483,030Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$98,199$109,846$122,368$136,128$143,578$163,444$170,381Service Stations$83,469$93,369$104,012$115,709$122,042$138,928$144,824Subtotal$181,668$203,216$226,380$251,837$265,620$302,372$315,205
Total$718,816$804,075$895,731$996,459$1,050,994$1,196,411$1,247,188Source: TNDG
Table A-18Sales Per Square Foot StandardsWest Ming Trade AreaExpressed in Sales/Square FeetRetail CategorySales/Square FeetShopper Goods:Apparel$250General Merchandise$300Furniture/Appliances$250Specialty/Other$250Food$400Eating/Drinking$250Building/Hardware/Garden$250Services Space @ 10% of RetailN/AAllowance for standard vacancy @ 5%GRAND TOTALSource: TNDG
Table A-19Potential Supportable Square Feet of Retail DevelopmentWest Ming Trade AreaRetail Category
2006
2010
2014
2018
2020
2026
2028
Shopper Goods:Apparel
133,550
149,391
166,420
185,134
195,267
222,284
231,718
General Merchandise
361,699
404,601
450,721
501,406
528,847
602,019
627,570
Furniture/Appliances
100,163
112,043
124,815
138,851
146,450
166,713
173,789
Specialty
367,264
410,825
457,655
509,120
536,983
611,281
637,225
Subtotal
962,6761,076,8601,199,6111,334,5111,407,5471,602,2981,670,301
Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)
508,179
568,455
633,252
704,464
743,018
845,824
881,721
Eating and Drinking
300,489
336,130
374,445
416,552
439,350
500,139
521,366
Subtotal
808,668
904,5841,007,6971,121,0161,182,3681,345,9631,403,087
Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm
392,795
439,385
489,471
544,513
574,314
653,777
681,524
Service Stations
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Subtotal
392,795
439,385
489,471
544,513
574,314
653,777
681,524
Services Space @ 10% of Retail
216,414
242,083
269,678
300,004
316,423
360,204
375,491
Allowance for standard vacancy @ 5%
125,292
140,153
156,129
173,687
183,192
208,539
217,390
GRAND TOTAL
2,505,8452,803,0663,122,5863,473,7313,663,8444,170,7804,347,792
Source: TNDG
Table A-20Existing Square Feet of Retail DevelopmentWest Ming Trade AreaRetail Category2006Shopper Goods:Apparel155,163
General Merchandise345,370
Furniture/Appliances49,244
Specialty306,018
Subtotal855,795Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)451,392
Eating and Drinking346,847
Subtotal798,239Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm241,233Service StationsN/ASubtotal241,233Services Space256,015Vacant32,364GRAND TOTAL2,183,646Source: TNDG
Table A-21Supportable Square Feet of NEW Retail SpaceWest Ming Trade AreaRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel015,84132,87051,58461,71688,73498,168General Merchandise16,33059,231105,351156,036183,478256,650282,200Furniture/Appliances50,91962,79975,57189,60797,206117,469124,544Specialty61,245104,807151,637203,101230,965305,263331,206Subtotal128,494242,678365,428500,328573,365768,115836,118Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)56,788117,063181,861253,072291,627394,432430,330Eating and Drinking035,64173,956116,064138,861199,651220,877Subtotal56,788152,704255,817369,136430,488594,083651,207Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm151,562198,152248,237303,280333,081412,544440,291Service StationsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/ASubtotal151,562198,152248,237303,280333,081412,544440,291Services Space @ 10% of Retail025,66953,26483,590100,009143,790159,077Allowance for standard vacancy @ 5%92,928107,789123,765141,323150,828176,175185,026GRAND TOTAL429,772726,9921,046,5121,397,6571,587,7712,094,7062,271,718
APPENDIX B:
RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS
WEST MING REGIONAL TRADE AREA
Table B-1Projected Number of HouseholdsWest Ming Regional Trade AreaArea2006201020142018202020262028Primary Market Area - 5-mile radius31,64935,40339,43843,87346,27552,67754,913Secondary Market Area40,35242,10446,04950,29452,68659,80362,242Regional Market Area - NW5,4588,0619,16110,30410,91912,65012,860Regional Market Area - W6,4556,4996,6846,9107,0297,5237,736 Total83,91492,067101,332111,382116,909132,654137,750Source: Claritas; Kern County Council of Governments (COG); The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG).Table B-2Average Household Income ProjectionsWest Ming Regional Trade AreaIn constant dollars
2006
Primary Market Area - 5-mile radius$82,301Secondary Market Area$64,607Regional Market Area - NW$42,728Regional Market Area - W$44,840Annual Increase Factor 0.00%Area2006201020142018202020262028Primary Market Area - 5-mile radius$82,301$82,301$82,301$82,301$82,301$82,301$82,301Secondary Market Area$64,607$64,607$64,607$64,607$64,607$64,607$64,607Regional Market Area - NW$42,728$42,728$42,728$42,728$42,728$42,728$42,728Regional Market Area - W$44,840$44,840$44,840$44,840$44,840$44,840$44,840Source: Claritas; TNDG
Table B-3Total Income and Potential Retail Sales ProjectionsWest Ming Regional Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 Dollars
PMASMARMA-NWRMA-W
Percent of Income Spent for Retail Goods37.7%40.4%44.9%44.3%Visitor and Business Spending0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Total37.7%40.4%44.9%44.3%Area2006201020142018202020262028Total Income:Primary Market Area - 5-mile radius$2,604,744$2,913,695$3,245,826$3,610,829$3,808,446$4,335,389$4,519,387Secondary Market Area$2,607,000$2,720,208$2,975,055$3,249,357$3,403,896$3,863,656$4,021,231Regional Market Area - NW$233,227$344,430$391,423$440,266$466,547$540,528$549,477Regional Market Area - W$289,441$291,415$299,697$309,836$315,180$337,339$346,878 Total $5,734,413$6,269,748$6,912,001$7,610,289$7,994,070$9,076,912$9,436,974Potential Retail Sales:Primary Market Area - 5-mile radiusResidents$981,989$1,098,463$1,223,676$1,361,283$1,435,784$1,634,442$1,703,809Business/Visitors$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$981,989$1,098,463$1,223,676$1,361,283$1,435,784$1,634,442$1,703,809Secondary Market AreaResidents$1,053,228$1,098,964$1,201,922$1,312,740$1,375,174$1,560,917$1,624,577Business/Visitors$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$1,053,228$1,098,964$1,201,922$1,312,740$1,375,174$1,560,917$1,624,577Regional Market Area - NWResidents$104,719$154,649$175,749$197,680$209,480$242,697$246,715Business/Visitors$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$104,719$154,649$175,749$197,680$209,480$242,697$246,715Regional Market Area - WResidents$128,222$129,097$132,766$137,257$139,625$149,441$153,667Business/Visitors$0$0$0$0$0$0$0Subtotal$128,222$129,097$132,766$137,257$139,625$149,441$153,667 Total Potential Retail Sales$2,268,158$2,481,173$2,734,113$3,008,960$3,160,063$3,587,497$3,728,769Source: TNDG
Table B-4Distribution of Retail Sales by Retail CategoryWest Ming Regional Trade AreaRetail Category
%Distribution 2006
%Distribution 2010
%Distribution 2014
%Distribution 2018
%Distribution 2020
%Distribution 2026
%Distribution 2028
Shopper Goods:Apparel4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%General Merchandise13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%Home Furnishings3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Specialty11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%Subtotal31.00%31.0%31.0%31.0%31.0%31.0%31.0%Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)23.0%23.0%23.0%23.0%23.0%23.0%23.0%Eating and Drinking9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%Subtotal32.00%32.0%32.0%32.0%32.0%32.0%32.0%Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%Auto Dealers and Parts17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%Service Stations10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%Subtotal37.00%37.0%37.0%37.0%37.0%37.0%37.0%
Total100.00%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%Source: TNDG, based on historic trends reported by the State Board of Equalization
Table B-5Projected PMA Demand for Retail Sales by Major Retail CategoryWest Ming Regional Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$39,280$43,939$48,947$54,451$57,431$65,378$68,152General Merchandise$127,659$142,800$159,078$176,967$186,652$212,477$221,495Furniture/Appliances$29,460$32,954$36,710$40,838$43,074$49,033$51,114Specialty$108,019$120,831$134,604$149,741$157,936$179,789$187,419Subtotal$304,416$340,524$379,340$421,998$445,093$506,677$528,181Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$225,857$252,647$281,446$313,095$330,230$375,922$391,876Eating and Drinking$88,379$98,862$110,131$122,515$129,221$147,100$153,343Subtotal$314,236$351,508$391,576$435,610$459,451$523,021$545,219Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$98,199$109,846$122,368$136,128$143,578$163,444$170,381Auto Dealers and Parts$166,938$186,739$208,025$231,418$244,083$277,855$289,648Service Stations$98,199$109,846$122,368$136,128$143,578$163,444$170,381Subtotal$363,336$406,431$452,760$503,675$531,240$604,743$630,409
Total$981,989$1,098,463$1,223,676$1,361,283$1,435,784$1,634,442$1,703,809Source: TNDG
Table B-6Projected SMA Demand for Retail Sales by Major Retail CategoryWest Ming Regional Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$42,129$43,959$48,077$52,510$55,007$62,437$64,983General Merchandise$136,920$142,865$156,250$170,656$178,773$202,919$211,195Furniture/Appliances$31,597$32,969$36,058$39,382$41,255$46,828$48,737Specialty$115,855$120,886$132,211$144,401$151,269$171,701$178,704Subtotal$326,501$340,679$372,596$406,949$426,304$483,884$503,619Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$242,242$252,762$276,442$301,930$316,290$359,011$373,653Eating and Drinking$94,791$98,907$108,173$118,147$123,766$140,483$146,212Subtotal$337,033$351,668$384,615$420,077$440,056$499,493$519,865Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$105,323$109,896$120,192$131,274$137,517$156,092$162,458Auto Dealers and Parts$179,049$186,824$204,327$223,166$233,780$265,356$276,178Service Stations$105,323$109,896$120,192$131,274$137,517$156,092$162,458Subtotal$389,694$406,617$444,711$485,714$508,814$577,539$601,094
Total$1,053,228$1,098,964$1,201,922$1,312,740$1,375,174$1,560,917$1,624,577Source: TNDG
Table B-7Projected RMA-NW Demand for Retail Sales by Major Retail CategoryWest Ming Regional Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$4,189$6,186$7,030$7,907$8,379$9,708$9,869General Merchandise$13,613$20,104$22,847$25,698$27,232$31,551$32,073Furniture/Appliances$3,142$4,639$5,272$5,930$6,284$7,281$7,401Specialty$11,519$17,011$19,332$21,745$23,043$26,697$27,139Subtotal$32,463$47,941$54,482$61,281$64,939$75,236$76,482Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$24,085$35,569$40,422$45,466$48,180$55,820$56,745Eating and Drinking$9,425$13,918$15,817$17,791$18,853$21,843$22,204Subtotal$33,510$49,488$56,240$63,257$67,033$77,663$78,949Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$10,472$15,465$17,575$19,768$20,948$24,270$24,672Auto Dealers and Parts$17,802$26,290$29,877$33,606$35,612$41,259$41,942Service Stations$10,472$15,465$17,575$19,768$20,948$24,270$24,672Subtotal$38,746$57,220$65,027$73,141$77,507$89,798$91,285
Total$104,719$154,649$175,749$197,680$209,480$242,697$246,715Source: TNDG
Table B-8Projected RMA-W Demand for Retail Sales by Major Retail CategoryWest Ming Regional Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$5,129$5,164$5,311$5,490$5,585$5,978$6,147General Merchandise$16,669$16,783$17,260$17,843$18,151$19,427$19,977Furniture/Appliances$3,847$3,873$3,983$4,118$4,189$4,483$4,610Specialty$14,104$14,201$14,604$15,098$15,359$16,439$16,903Subtotal$39,749$40,020$41,157$42,550$43,284$46,327$47,637Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$29,491$29,692$30,536$31,569$32,114$34,371$35,343Eating and Drinking$11,540$11,619$11,949$12,353$12,566$13,450$13,830Subtotal$41,031$41,311$42,485$43,922$44,680$47,821$49,173Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$12,822$12,910$13,277$13,726$13,962$14,944$15,367Auto Dealers and Parts$21,798$21,946$22,570$23,334$23,736$25,405$26,123Service Stations$12,822$12,910$13,277$13,726$13,962$14,944$15,367Subtotal$47,442$47,766$49,123$50,785$51,661$55,293$56,857
Total$128,222$129,097$132,766$137,257$139,625$149,441$153,667Source: TNDG
Table B-9Potential Capture Rates of PMA DemandWest Ming Regional Trade AreaRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel85%85%85%85%85%85%85%General Merchandise85%85%85%85%85%85%85%Furniture/Appliances85%85%85%85%85%85%85%Specialty85%85%85%85%85%85%85%Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)90%90%90%90%90%90%90%Eating and Drinking85%85%85%85%85%85%85%Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Service Stations85%85%85%85%85%85%85%Source: TNDG
Table B-10Potential Capture Rates of SMA DemandWest Ming Regional Trade AreaRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel30.0%30.0%35.0%35.0%35.0%35.0%35.0%General Merchandise30.0%30.0%35.0%35.0%35.0%35.0%35.0%Furniture/Appliances30.0%30.0%35.0%35.0%35.0%35.0%35.0%Specialty30.0%30.0%35.0%35.0%35.0%35.0%35.0%Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)15.0%15.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%Eating and Drinking15.0%15.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm5.0%5.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%Service Stations2.5%2.5%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%Source: TNDG
Table B-11Potential Capture Rates of RMA-NW DemandWest Ming Regional Trade AreaRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel5.0%5.0%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%General Merchandise5.0%5.0%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Furniture/Appliances5.0%5.0%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Specialty5.0%5.0%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)2.5%2.5%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%Eating and Drinking2.5%2.5%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm2.5%2.5%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%Service Stations1.5%1.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%Source: TNDG
Table B-12Potential Capture Rates of RMA-W DemandWest Ming Regional Trade AreaRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel10.0%10.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%General Merchandise10.0%10.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%Furniture/Appliances10.0%10.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%Specialty10.0%10.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)5.0%5.0%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Eating and Drinking5.0%5.0%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm5.0%5.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%Service Stations1.5%1.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%Source: TNDG
Table B-13Potential Capture of Sales from PMAWest Ming Regional Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$33,388$37,348$41,605$46,284$48,817$55,571$57,930General Merchandise$108,510$121,380$135,216$150,422$158,654$180,606$188,271Furniture/Appliances$25,041$28,011$31,204$34,713$36,613$41,678$43,447Specialty$91,816$102,706$114,414$127,280$134,246$152,820$159,306Subtotal$258,754$289,445$322,439$358,698$378,329$430,675$448,954Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$203,272$227,382$253,301$281,786$297,207$338,329$352,688Eating and Drinking$75,122$84,032$93,611$104,138$109,838$125,035$130,341Subtotal$278,394$311,414$346,912$385,924$407,045$463,364$483,030Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$98,199$109,846$122,368$136,128$143,578$163,444$170,381Service Stations$83,469$93,369$104,012$115,709$122,042$138,928$144,824Subtotal$181,668$203,216$226,380$251,837$265,620$302,372$315,205
Total$718,816$804,075$895,731$996,459$1,050,994$1,196,411$1,247,188Source: TNDG
Table B-14Potential Capture of Sales from SMAWest Ming Regional Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$12,639$13,188$16,827$18,378$19,252$21,853$22,744General Merchandise$41,076$42,860$54,687$59,730$62,570$71,022$73,918Furniture/Appliances$9,479$9,891$12,620$13,784$14,439$16,390$17,058Specialty$34,757$36,266$46,274$50,540$52,944$60,095$62,546Subtotal$97,950$102,204$130,409$142,432$149,206$169,359$176,267Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$36,336$37,914$55,288$60,386$63,258$71,802$74,731Eating and Drinking$14,219$14,836$21,635$23,629$24,753$28,097$29,242Subtotal$50,555$52,750$76,923$84,015$88,011$99,899$103,973Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$5,266$5,495$12,019$13,127$13,752$15,609$16,246Service Stations$2,633$2,747$6,010$6,564$6,876$7,805$8,123Subtotal$7,899$8,242$18,029$19,691$20,628$23,414$24,369
Total$156,404$163,196$225,360$246,139$257,845$292,672$304,608Source: TNDG
Table B-15Potential Capture of Sales from RMA-NWWest Ming Regional Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$209$309$527$593$628$728$740General Merchandise$681$1,005$1,714$1,927$2,042$2,366$2,405Furniture/Appliances$157$232$395$445$471$546$555Specialty$576$851$1,450$1,631$1,728$2,002$2,035Subtotal$1,623$2,397$4,086$4,596$4,870$5,643$5,736Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$602$889$2,021$2,273$2,409$2,791$2,837Eating and Drinking$236$348$791$890$943$1,092$1,110Subtotal$838$1,237$2,812$3,163$3,352$3,883$3,947Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$262$387$879$988$1,047$1,213$1,234Service Stations$267$394$747$840$890$1,031$1,049Subtotal$529$781$1,626$1,829$1,938$2,245$2,282
Total$2,990$4,415$8,524$9,587$10,160$11,771$11,966Source: TNDG
Table B-16Potential Capture of Sales from RMA-WWest Ming Regional Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$513$516$797$824$838$897$922General Merchandise$1,667$1,678$2,589$2,677$2,723$2,914$2,997Furniture/Appliances$385$387$597$618$628$672$692Specialty$1,410$1,420$2,191$2,265$2,304$2,466$2,536Subtotal$3,975$4,002$6,174$6,382$6,493$6,949$7,146Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$1,475$1,485$2,290$2,368$2,409$2,578$2,651Eating and Drinking$577$581$896$926$942$1,009$1,037Subtotal$2,052$2,066$3,186$3,294$3,351$3,587$3,688Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$641$645$1,328$1,373$1,396$1,494$1,537Service Stations$327$329$564$583$593$635$653Subtotal$968$975$1,892$1,956$1,990$2,130$2,190
Total$6,995$7,042$11,252$11,633$11,833$12,665$13,023Source: TNDG
Table B-17Potential Capture of Sales from Combined Market AreasWest Ming Regional Trade AreaIn Thousands of 2006 DollarsRetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel$46,749$51,361$59,756$66,079$69,535$79,049$82,336General Merchandise$151,933$166,923$194,206$214,755$225,990$256,908$267,591Furniture/Appliances$35,062$38,521$44,817$49,559$52,151$59,286$61,752Specialty$128,559$141,243$164,328$181,716$191,222$217,384$226,423Subtotal$362,302$398,048$463,107$512,109$538,898$612,627$638,102Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)$241,685$267,670$312,901$346,813$365,283$415,500$432,907Eating and Drinking$90,153$99,797$116,933$129,583$136,476$155,232$161,731Subtotal$331,838$367,467$429,834$476,396$501,759$570,733$594,638Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm$104,368$116,373$136,593$151,617$159,774$181,761$189,397Service Stations$86,696$96,840$111,333$123,696$130,401$148,399$154,648Subtotal$191,064$213,214$247,927$275,313$290,175$330,160$344,045
Total$885,204$978,729$1,140,867$1,263,818$1,330,832$1,513,519$1,576,785Source: TNDG
Table B-18Sales Per Square Foot StandardsWest Ming Regional Trade AreaExpressed in Sales/Square FeetRetail CategorySales/Square FeetShopper Goods:Apparel$250General Merchandise$300Furniture/Appliances$250Specialty/Other$250Food$400Eating/Drinking$250Building/Hardware/Garden$250Services Space @ 10% of RetailN/AAllowance for standard vacancy @ 5%GRAND TOTALSource: TNDG
Table B-19Potential Supportable Square Feet of Retail DevelopmentWest Ming Regional Trade Area - PMARetail Category
2006
2010
2014
2018
2020
2026
2028
Shopper Goods:Apparel
186,995
205,444
239,023
264,314
278,141
316,194
329,343
General Merchandise
506,444
556,411
647,354
715,851
753,299
856,360
891,971
Furniture/Appliances
140,246
154,083
179,267
198,236
208,606
237,146
247,007
Specialty
514,235
564,971
657,313
726,864
764,888
869,535
905,693
Subtotal
1,347,9201,480,9091,722,9571,905,2652,004,9342,279,2342,374,014
Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)
604,212
669,175
782,252
867,031
913,2071,038,7511,082,268
Eating and Drinking
360,613
399,189
467,732
518,334
545,903
620,929
646,925
Subtotal
964,8251,068,3641,249,9831,385,3651,459,1101,659,6801,729,193
Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm
417,472
465,493
546,373
606,467
639,095
727,045
757,588
Service Stations
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Subtotal
417,472
465,493
546,373
606,467
639,095
727,045
757,588
Services Space @ 10% of Retail
273,022
301,477
351,931
389,710
410,314
466,596
486,079
Allowance for standard vacancy @ 5%
158,065
174,539
203,750
225,621
237,550
270,134
281,414
GRAND TOTAL
3,161,3043,490,7824,074,9954,512,4284,751,0045,402,6905,628,288
Source: TNDG
Table B-20Existing Square Feet of Retail DevelopmentWest Ming Regional Trade Area - PMARetail Category2006Shopper Goods:Apparel155,163
General Merchandise345,370
Furniture/Appliances49,244
Specialty306,018
Subtotal855,795Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)451,392
Eating and Drinking346,847
Subtotal798,239Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm241,233Service StationsN/ASubtotal241,233Services Space256,015Vacant32,364GRAND TOTAL2,183,646Source: TNDG
Table B-21Supportable Square Feet of NEW Retail SpaceWest Ming Regional Trade Area - PMARetail Category2006201020142018202020262028Shopper Goods:Apparel31,83250,28183,860109,151122,978161,031174,180General Merchandise161,074211,041301,984370,481407,929510,990546,601Furniture/Appliances91,002104,839130,023148,992159,362187,902197,763Specialty208,217258,953351,295420,846458,870563,516599,675Subtotal492,125625,114867,1621,049,4701,149,1391,423,4391,518,219Convenience Goods:Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)152,820217,783330,860415,640461,816587,360630,876Eating and Drinking13,76652,342120,885171,487199,056274,082300,078Subtotal166,587270,126451,745587,127660,872861,441930,954Heavy Commercial Goods:Building/ Hardware/ Farm176,239224,260305,140365,234397,862485,812516,355Service StationsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/ASubtotal176,239224,260305,140365,234397,862485,812516,355Services Space @ 10% of Retail17,00745,46295,916133,695154,299210,581230,064Allowance for standard vacancy @ 5%125,701142,175171,386193,257205,186237,770249,050GRAND TOTAL977,6581,307,1361,891,3492,328,7832,567,3583,219,0443,444,642
APPENDIX C:
INVENTORY OF EXISTING RETAIL STORES
IN WEST MING REGIONAL TRADE AREA
PRIMARY MARKET AREA
Table C-1
INVENTORY OF RETAIL TENANTS AND SQUARE FEET OF BUILDING SPACE
WEST MING RETAIL TRADE AREA
SQUARERETAIL
BUSINESSADDRESSFEETCATEGORY
Discount Liquor & Wine10??? Rosedale Hwy.4,897 F
Los Hermanos10050 Rosedale Hwy.3,379 ED
Elephant Bar10100 Stockdale Hwy.12,342 ED
California Pizza Kitchen10150 Stockdale Hwy.9,966 ED
Country Boy Drive-In10211 Rosedale Hwy.1,567 ED
Spencer's10437 Rosedale Hwy9,599 ED
Ace Hardware10511 Rosedale Hwy.21,451 BHG
Rosedale Pool & Spa Supply10515 Rosedale Hwy.4,995 S
Dianna's Fine Lines10519 Rosedale Hwy.1,110 SVC
Steve's Pizza10521 Rosedale Hwy.3,330 ED
Code 3 Embroidery10530 Rosedale Hwy. #1955 SVC
Code 3 Uniforms10530 Rosedale Hwy. #2955 A
Lone Oak Flowers10530 Rosedale Hwy. #31,175 S
Tangles Salon10530 Rosedale Hwy. #41,175 SVC
Sneedos Cleaners10530 Rosedale Hwy. #51,175 SVC
Affordable Framing10530 Rosedale Hwy. #61,175 S
A+ Nutrition Foods10530 Rosedale Hwy. #71,714 S
Lucky 710530 Rosedale Hwy. #82,914 F
Cue Ball10575 Rosedale Hwy.3,330 ED
Pappy's Coffee Shop10595 Rosedale Hwy.3,330 ED
Rosedale Vet10611 Rosedale Hwy.3,330 SVC
Mauricio's10700 Rosedale Hwy.13,713 ED
A+Pak Rats10711 Rosedale Hwy.3,330 FA
Fitness Connexion10717 Rosedale Hwy.4,440 SVC
Greenacres Liquor10725 Rosedale Hwy. #A1,861 F
American Barber Shop10725 Rosedale Hwy. #B1,077 SVC
CarQuest Auto Parts10800 Rosedale Hwy.8,571 AD
J&M Rosedale Cafe10805 Rosedale Hwy.3,330 ED
Schweitzer's Pit Stop10807 Rosedale Hwy.2,359 ED
Natural Touch10810 Rosedale Hwy.1,632 S
SQUARERETAIL
BUSINESSADDRESSFEETCATEGORY
fastrip1200 Coffee Rd.3,379 GAS
Fastrip12851 Rosedale Hwy.4,285 GAS
Fastrip12851 Rosedale Hwy.N/AGAS
7 Eleven12916 Rosedale Hwy.3,608 F
Citgo12916 Rosedale Hwy.N/AGAS
Pedal Car Café1300 Coffee Rd.5,485 ED
Supreme Bean13001 Stockdale Hwy.N/AED
Mobil13001 Stockdale Hwy.3,330 GAS
Mobil13001 Stockdale Hwy.N/AGAS
American Deli & Liquor13001 Stockdale Hwy. #A5,942 F
Suzette's Cleaners13001 Stockdale Hwy. #B1,371 SVC
Salotto Hair Design13001 Stockdale Hwy. #C1,371 SVC
El Patio13001 Stockdale Hwy. #D4,342 ED
Plumberry's13001 Stockdale Hwy. #E5,028 ED
McDonalds13003 Rosedale Hwy.5,550 ED
Chevron13003 Rosedale Hwy.N/AGAS
Sonic13015 Stockdale Hwy.2,351 ED
Albertson's13045 Rosedale Hwy.75,111 F
State Farm13061 Rosedale Hwy. #A2,204 SVC
Bryce White Dentistry13061 Rosedale Hwy. #B1,714 SVC
Fantastic Sams13061 Rosedale Hwy. #C1,959 SVC
Today Cleaners13061 Rosedale Hwy. #D3,183 SVC
Club Tan13061 Rosedale Hwy. #E2,449 SVC
The Musician's Store13061 Rosedale Hwy. #F1,469 S
Post Net13061 Rosedale Hwy. #G1,959 S
Pay Day Cash13061 Rosedale Hwy. #H1,959 SVC
Fabious' Corner13061 Rosedale Hwy. #I2,449 ED
Wonder Cigs13075 Rosedale Hwy. #A1,714 S
Sprint13075 Rosedale Hwy. #B16,651 S
Super Top Nails13075 Rosedale Hwy. #C2,694 SVC
Papa Murphy's13075 Rosedale Hwy. #D5,877 ED
Blockbuster13075 Rosedale Hwy. #E5,877 SVC
Crosby's Market/Liquor14055 Rosedale Hwy.2,743 F
Grandview Asian Cuisine2217 Ashe Rd.8,456 ED
Rite Aid2646 Allen Rd.25,075 GM
Los Hermanos3700 Gosford Rd. #A3,061 ED
Kyle Carter3700 Gosford Rd. #C1,632 SVC
Staffmark3700 Gosford Rd. #D1,632 SVC
G2 Performance3700 Gosford Rd. #E5,714 SVC
Sagepointe Cleaners3720 Gosford Rd. #A2,090 SVC
Apollonia Dental3720 Gosford Rd. #C2,090 SVC
Me 'n' Ed's Pizzeria3720 Gosford Rd. #F4,179 ED
SQUARERETAIL
BUSINESSADDRESSFEETCATEGORY
Wing Stop3880 Gosford Rd. #1002,155 ED
Iron Eye Care3880 Gosford Rd. #2001,796 S
VACANT3880 Gosford Rd. #3001,616 V
Shell4050 Gosford Rd.1,796 GAS
Shell4050 Gosford Rd.N/AGAS
Papa O's4200 Gosford Rd. #1018,162 ED
State Farm4200 Gosford Rd. #1031,632 SVC
Skin Deep Spa4200 Gosford Rd. #1051,632 SVC
Holiday Cleaners4200 Gosford Rd. #1071,632 SVC
Popeye's4360 Gosford Rd.3,551 ED
Denny's4440 Gosford Rd.6,285 ED
VACANT4500 Gosford Rd. #1018,097 V
Sold it on Ebay4500 Gosford Rd. #1022,277 SVC
VACANT4500 Gosford Rd. #1031,771 V
VACANT4500 Gosford Rd. #1041,771 V
VACANT4500 Gosford Rd. #1051,771 V
VACANT4500 Gosford Rd. #1061,771 V
VACANT4500 Gosford Rd. #1071,771 V
VACANT4500 Gosford Rd. #1083,036 V
Kragen4500 Gosford Rd. #1096,579 AD
Amigos4600 Gosford Rd.9,926 ED
Wendy's4650 Gosford Rd.4,285 ED
Home Depot4700 Gosford Rd.142,614 BHG
Jack in the Box4750 Gosford Rd.3,918 ED
Walgreens4949 Gosford Rd.18,676 GM
Panda Express5041 Gosford Rd. #F12,938 ED
Radio shack5041 Gosford Rd. #F22,938 S
VACANT5041 Gosford Rd. #F33,722 V
Starbucks5041 Gosford Rd. #F42,938 ED
Petco5151 Gosford Rd.19,263 S
Kohls5253 Gosford Rd.85,252 A
Sam's Club5625 Gosford Rd.167,934 GM
Friar Tux600 Coffee Rd. #B3,265 A
West Coast Cash600 Coffee Rd. #C1,632 SVC
T-Mobile600 Coffee Rd. #D1,632 S
Family Eye Health600 Coffee Rd. #E1,632 SVC
State Farm600 Coffee Rd. #F1,632 SVC
Don Hall Jewelers600 Coffee Rd. #G1,632 S
Baby Sightings600 Coffee Rd. #H3,265 A
Frugattis600 Coffee Rd. #M4,693 ED
Nails Etc.600 Coffee Rd. #N1,632 SVC
New City Cleaners600 Coffee Rd. #O1,632 SVC
SQUARERETAIL
BUSINESSADDRESSFEETCATEGORY
Southwest Dental Care600 Coffee Rd. #P1,632 SVC
Lou Ella's600 Coffee Rd. #Q1,632 A
Clerico Chiropractic600 Coffee Rd. #R1,632 SVC
Bra Shoppe600 Coffee Rd. #S1,632 A
VACANT600 Coffee Rd. #T1,632 V
Extreme Soccer600 Coffee Rd. #U3,265 S
Finish Line600 Coffee Rd. #W5,518 S
Food Maxx6300 White Ln.114,274 F
Slender Lady6300 White Ln. #J1,502 SVC
Kong's Kitchen6300 White Ln. #K1,502 ED
Comfort Nails6300 White Ln. #L1,502 SVC
Hair Effects6300 White Ln. #M1,502 SVC
Nextel6300 White Ln. #N1,690 S
Pizza Hut6300 White Ln. #O1,690 ED
Javi's Super Tortas6300 White Ln. #P1,502 ED
VACANT6300 White Ln. #Q1,502 V
Scrub Club6300 White Ln. #R1,690 A
T-Shirt Outlet6300 White Ln. #S9,158 A
Real Estate Notary6300 White Ln. #T1,690 SVC
Illusions Salon6300 White Ln. #W1,690 SVC
CFC Home Mortgage6300 White Ln. #X1,690 SVC
Affordable Cleaners6300 White Ln. #Y3,379 SVC
Lorene's6401 Ming Ave.6,195 ED
Sagepointe Dental6405 Ming Ave.3,469 SVC
Orthodontics6409 Ming Ave.2,653 SVC
Magoos Pizza6417 Ming Ave.4,693 ED
Grocery Outlet6421 Ming Ave.25,091 F
Shear West Salon6423 Ming Ave.849 SVC
Autoland6425 Ming Ave.849 SVC
Sagepointe Cleaners6429 Ming Ave.1,379 SVC
Savory Solutions6437 Ming Ave.2,547 ED
VACANT6439 Ming Ave. #A1,167 V
Sweet Surrender6439 Ming Ave. #B849 ED
Strawberry Patches6439 Ming Ave. #C3,085 A
Arco AMPM6450 White Ln.3,428 GAS
Arco6450 White Ln.N/AGAS
A&W6455 White Ln.6,073 ED
Orchard6465 Ming Ave.70,344 BHG
EZ Lube6541 White Ln.N/ASVC
Meineke6541 White Ln. #MN/AAD
Crossroads Car Wash6541 White Ln. #NN/ASVC
America's Tire Co6561 White LaneN/AAD
SQUARERETAIL
BUSINESSADDRESSFEETCATEGORY
High Voltage Car Audio6561 White Ln. #CN/AAD
Auto Finishline6561 White Ln. #FN/ASVC
1 Stop Smog6561 White Ln. #HN/ASVC
Chevron6601 Ming Ave.N/AGAS
Chevron6601 Ming Ave.1,110 GAS
Aamco6601 White LaneN/ASVC
Auto Zone6615 Ming Ave.8,995 AD
Wash 'n' Dry6621 Ming Ave.3,526 SVC
Liquor King6629 Ming Ave.5,730 F
Waterfall Cleaners6631 Ming Ave.3,608 SVC
Sports & Spirits6633 Ming Ave.2,547 ED
El Portal6641 Ming Ave.7,640 ED
Smart Mortgage6645 Ming Ave.1,698 SVC
Sabol Chiropractic6647 Ming Ave.2,122 SVC
Edward Jones6649 Ming Ave.1,698 SVC
School Works6655 Ming Ave.7,428 S
Health & Rehabilitation6659 Ming Ave.2,122 SVC
Asis Real Estate6661 Ming Ave.1,698 SVC
Heavenly Dental6663 Ming Ave.2,122 SVC
3 Day Blinds6665 Ming Ave.1,698 FA
Simply Salon6667 Ming Ave.1,698 SVC
Rusty's Pizza Parlor6675 Ming Ave.7,836 ED
Sonic6701 White Lane1,763 ED
Lengthwise Brewing Company6720 White Lane7,754 ED
Homes 'R' Us6721 White Lane4,506 SVC
La Cabana6725 White Lane7,134 ED
Burger Depot6801 White Lane1,175 ED
The Patio Shoppe6801 White Lane #A111,101 FA
Anchor Lighting6801 White Lane #B11,632 FA
California Flooring6801 White Lane #B24,571 FA
VACANT6901 White Ln.N/AV
Big O Tires6911 White Ln.N/AAD
Midas6919 White Ln.N/AAD
E Zone7401 White Ln. #18,685 S
Racer's Haven7401 White Ln. #1710,856 S
Ames7401 White Ln. #26,824 BHG
Korea Market Video7401 White Ln. #2510,856 SVC
Assist 2 Sell7401 White Ln. #810,856 GM
Tootsie's Salon7401 White Ln. #910,856 SVC
Movie Gallery7691 White Ln.17,957 SVC
Supreme Bean7695 White Ln.490 ED
Martinizing7697 White Ln.1,306 SVC
SQUARERETAIL
BUSINESSADDRESSFEETCATEGORY
B Ryders7701 White Ln. #A16,530 ED
Spa World7701 White Ln. #A27,183 FA
Casa Bella7701 White Ln. #A38,162 FA
Body Xchange7701 White Ln. #A48,162 SVC
Sorella7800 McNair Ln.6,318 ED
West Coast Cash7800 White Ln. #A2,041 SVC
Alfonso's7800 White Ln. #B2,041 ED
Rollerama7850 Brimhall Rd.29,630 S
Hope Christian Store7850 White Ln. #B3,428 S
USA Yoghurt7850 White Ln. #C1,469 ED
Foster's Donuts7850 White Ln. #D1,143 ED
UPS Store7850 White Ln. #E1,143 SVC
Kento's7850 White Ln. #F1,469 ED
Pro Nails7850 White Ln. #G1,143 SVC
Welcome to Precious Jewelry7850 White Ln. #H1,306 S
Welcome to Glenna's7850 White Ln. #J1,306 S
Today Cleaners7850 White Ln. #K1,959 SVC
Taco Bell7880 White Ln.3,526 ED
Dollar Tree7890 White Ln.13,713 GM
Albertson's7900 White Ln.51,995 F
McDonalds7901 White Ln.5,999 ED
Italienne7950 White Ln. #A1,224 SVC
Port of Subs7950 White Ln. #B979 ED
Quick Cash7950 White Ln. #C1,102 SVC
Club Tan7950 White Ln. #D979 SVC
Alpha Omega7950 White Ln. #E1,102 SVC
Chevron7951 White Ln.N/AGAS
Burger King7990 White Ln.5,485 ED
Wells Fargo8000 White Ln. #A1,469 SVC
Fastrip8001 White Ln.6,391 GAS
Fastrip8001 White Ln.N/AGAS
Rite Aid8020 White Ln.25,589 GM
H&R Block8040 White Ln. #A1,959 SVC
Italienne Day Spa8040 White Ln. #C979 SVC
Little Caesar's8040 White Ln. #D857 ED
House of Smoke8040 White Ln. #E857 S
Beauty Supply8040 White Ln. #F1,102 S
Upper Cut8040 White Ln. #G1,102 SVC
El Pollo Loco8200 Stockdale Hwy #J3,657 ED
Bagels & Blenderz8200 Stockdale Hwy #K13,885 ED
Town & Country Chiropractic8200 Stockdale Hwy #K32,653 SVC
Crisp & Cole8200 Stockdale Hwy #K41,796 SVC
SQUARERETAIL
BUSINESSADDRESSFEETCATEGORY
Burger King8200 Stockdale Hwy #L4,114 ED
Prime Cut8200 Stockdale Hwy #M12,547 ED
UPS Store8200 Stockdale Hwy #M101,837 S
Today Cleaners8200 Stockdale Hwy #M111,975 SVC
Ivy's Yogurt8200 Stockdale Hwy #M22,204 ED
State Farm8200 Stockdale Hwy #M31,763 SVC
Glitz Salon8200 Stockdale Hwy #M41,763 SVC
Wells Fargo8200 Stockdale Hwy #M53,967 SVC
Little Italy8200 Stockdale Hwy #M65,510 ED
Dedicated Dental8200 Stockdale Hwy #M93,469 SVC
Los Hermanos8200 Stockdale Hwy #N2,694 ED
Starbucks8200 Stockdale Hwy. #A12,228 ED
H&R Block8200 Stockdale Hwy. #A21,714 SVC
Subway8200 Stockdale Hwy. #A32,400 ED
Central Valley Physical8200 Stockdale Hwy. #B12,604 SVC
Mona Lisa's8200 Stockdale Hwy. #B21,657 FA
World Records8200 Stockdale Hwy. #B34,261 S
Martinizing8200 Stockdale Hwy. #B42,130 SVC
Action Sports8200 Stockdale Hwy. #C216,194 S
Trader Joe's8200 Stockdale Hwy. #C2114,170 F
Concept Elite Salon8200 Stockdale Hwy. #D12,865 SVC
Verizon8200 Stockdale Hwy. #D22,865 S
Leslie's8200 Stockdale Hwy. #D35,730 S
Oreck8200 Stockdale Hwy. #D53,085 FA
Havana House8200 Stockdale Hwy. #D62,865 S
Whellers Fitness Equipment8200 Stockdale Hwy. #D71,983 S
Knights Jewelers8200 Stockdale Hwy. #D81,983 S
Albertson's8200 Stockdale Hwy. #E52,305 F
Bobbi's Hallmark8200 Stockdale Hwy. #F39,917 S
Long's Drugs8200 Stockdale Hwy. #G38,968 GM
Garden District Flowers8200 Stockdale Hwy. #H12,204 S
Miyoshi8200 Stockdale Hwy. #H1A2,865 ED
Planet Dance8200 Stockdale Hwy. #H21,543 A
Cloud Travel8200 Stockdale Hwy. #H31,983 SVC
Euro Tan8200 Stockdale Hwy. #H41,543 SVC
Vons9000 Ming Ave.90,750 F
Edwards Cinemas9000 Ming Ave. 76,596 S
Tahoe Joe's9000 Ming Ave. #10,628 ED
Rite Aid9000 Ming Ave. #A23,794 GM
State Farm9000 Ming Ave. #B21,698 SVC
Cingular Wireless9000 Ming Ave. #B31,486 S
Super Cuts9000 Ming Ave. #B41,698 SVC
SQUARERETAIL
BUSINESSADDRESSFEETCATEGORY
The Beach House9000 Ming Ave. #B52,971 A
Anna's Cards & Gifts9000 Ming Ave. #D14,130 S
Today Cleaners9000 Ming Ave. #D42,253 SVC
Mainland Skate & Surf9000 Ming Ave. #E13,379 A
Baskin Robbins9000 Ming Ave. #E32,441 ED
Wasabi Express9000 Ming Ave. #E41,061 ED
The Cutting Edge Salon9000 Ming Ave. #E5637 SVC
Me 'n' Ed's Pizzeria9000 Ming Ave. #F1849 ED
China Bistro9000 Ming Ave. #F21,698 ED
Que Pasa9000 Ming Ave. #F52,351 ED
Johnny Rockets9000 Ming Ave. #H11,249 ED
Coldstone Creamery9000 Ming Ave. #H21,102 ED
VACANT9000 Ming Ave. #H31,102 V
Treasures from the Heart9000 Ming Ave. #H41,102 S
Robson Eilers9000 Ming Ave. #H51,102 S
Kayzie's Collection9000 Ming Ave. #H61,102 A
Stride Rite9000 Ming Ave. #H71,102 A
ProShop Golf & Tennis9000 Ming Ave. #I15,273 S
Color Me Mine9000 Ming Ave. #I23,102 S
Chicos9000 Ming Ave. #I34,342 A
Russo's9000 Ming Ave. #I49,305 S
Thomasville9000 Ming Ave. #J114,268 S
Jenny Craig9000 Ming Ave. #K17,714 SVC
Patrick James9000 Ming Ave. #K103,951 A
Mama Tosca's9000 Ming Ave. #K34,163 ED
Victoria's Boutique9000 Ming Ave. #K42,694 A
Good Feet9000 Ming Ave. #K52,694 A
Bella9000 Ming Ave. #K62,449 A
Essentials9000 Ming Ave. #K72,694 SVC
Paradise9000 Ming Ave. #K82,694 A
Olcotts9000 Ming Ave. #L16,824 FA
Fritch Eye Care9000 Ming Ave. #L24,310 S
Castle & Cooke9000 Ming Ave. #L31,616 SVC
Tolbots9000 Ming Ave. #L410,742 A
HFC9000 Ming Ave. #L53,657 SVC
DHM9000 Ming Ave. #L63,428 SVC
Applebee's9000 Ming Ave. #M7,509 ED
Blockbuster9000 Ming Ave. #N6,759 SVC
Starbucks9000 Ming Ave. #O12,122 ED
Baja Fresh9000 Ming Ave. #O24,163 ED
Jamba Juice9000 Ming Ave. #O51,959 ED
Togos9000 Ming Ave. #O51,959 ED
SQUARERETAIL
BUSINESSADDRESSFEETCATEGORY
Carl's Jr.9000 Ming Ave. #Q4,049 ED
7-119600 Brimhall Rd.4,114 GAS
Citgo9600 Brimhall Rd.N/AGAS
EZ Lube9700 Rosedale Hwy.N/ASVC
San Joaquin Safety Shoes9910 Rosedale Hwy. #A3,412 A
Beasley Home Inspection9910 Rosedale Hwy. #B1898 SVC
Allstate9910 Rosedale Hwy. #B21,257 SVC
Spoiled Rotten9910 Rosedale Hwy. #C2,155 A
Hidden Corner Café9910 Rosedale Hwy. #D686 ED
Trophy Shack9910 Rosedale Hwy. #E686 S
Country Rose Beauty Salon9910 Rosedale Hwy. #F1,224 SVC
His Place Barber Shop9910 Rosedale Hwy. #G1,224 SVC
Bar9910 Rosedale Hwy. #H612 ED
Casa Mexico9910 Rosedale Hwy. #I1,959 ED
Source: TNDG
5-MILE
Notes:SFPercent
A = Apparel155,163 7.1%
GM = General Merchandise345,370 15.8%
FA = Furniture/Appliances49,244 2.3%
S = Specialty306,018 14.0%
F = Food (Supermarkets/Liquor)451,392 20.7%
ED = Eating and Drinking346,847 15.9%
BHG = Building/Hardware/Garden241,233 11.0%
AD = Auto Dealers and PartsN/AN/A
SVC = Service Business256,015 11.7%
GAS = Gas/Service StationN/AN/A
V = Vacant32,364 1.5%
TOTAL2,183,646100.0%
Table C-2
Shopping Centers in West Ming Retail Trade Area
Map
Key
Shopping
Center NameAddressType
Square
FeetAnchors
1The Plaza at Riverlakes9530-9680 Hageman
Bakersfield, CA
Community117,134 Save-Mart, Walgreens
2Riverlakes Village4400-4560 Coffee Rd
Bakersfield, CA
Community119,226 Vons, Long's Drugs
3Rosedale Village Shopping
Center
2665 Calloway Dr
Bakersfield, CA
Community217,026 Smart & Final (opening soon)
4Northwest Promenade8300-9400 Rosedale Hwy
Bakersfield, CA
Regional990,000 Best Buy, Cost Plus, Home Depot, Kohl's,
Linens N' Things, Office Depot, Walmart,
Petco, Foods Co., Target, Ross, Babies 'R
Us, Michaels
5Bakersfield Plaza4200 California Ave
Bakersfield, CA
Community213,164 Long's Drugs; Vons (vacant)
6Town & Country Village8200 Stockdale Hwy
Bakersfield, CA
Community173,773 Albertson's, Trader Joe's, Long's Drugs,
Action Sports
7Stockdale Village5510 Stockdale Hwy
Bakersfield, CA
Community184,694 Office Depot, Vons, Long's Drugs
8The Marketplace9000 Ming Ave
Bakersfield, CA
Community299,000 Vons, Edwards Theater
9Best Plaza Shopping
Center
4400 Ming Ave
Bakersfield, CA
Community132,469 Dollar Tree, Food 4 Less, Party Works,
Walgreens
10Builders Square4001-4151 Ming Ave
Bakersfield, CA
Community152,000 Aaron Rents, PetsMART
11Ming Plaza3759 Ming Ave
Bakersfield, CA
n/an/aRoss, Office Max
12Kmart Shopping Center3516-3600 Wilson
Bakersfield, CA
Community124,000 Kmart, Ready Go Market
13Stockdale Town Center3400-3500 Stine Rd
Bakersfield, CA
Community165,000 Vons, Long's Drugs
14Village at the Oaks7900 White Ln
Bakersfield, CA
Community125,905 Albertson's
15Stine-White Towne Center4800 White Ln
Bakersfield, CA
Community110,000 Carl's Jr.
16Unnamed5151-5625 Gosford Rd
Bakersfield, CA
Communityn/aKohl's, Petco, Sam's Club
Source: Shopping Center Directory, Trade Dimensions Int'l; TNDG
Shopping Centers in West Ming Retail Trade Area (MAP)0 mi
2
4
6
8
Table C-3
Freestanding Retail Stores in West Ming Retail Trade Area
Map KeyStoreAddress
Market
Area
Estimated
Square Feet
AAlbertsons13045 Highway 58
Bakersfield, CA PMA 75,111
AAlbertsons6045 Coffee Rd
Bakersfield, CA SMA 50,000
AAlbertsons3500 Panama Lane
Bakersfield, CA SMA 50,000
AAlbertsons1044 Kern Srett
Taft, CA RMA-W 50,000
BBed Bath & Beyond5000 Stockdale Highway
Bakersfield, CA SMA 54,000
CCostco4900 Panama Lane
Bakersfield, CA SMA 170,000
CCostco3800 Rosedale Highway
Bakersfield, CA SMA 170,000
FFood Maxx6300 White Ln
Bakersfield, CA PMA 114,274
HHome Depot4700 Gosford Road
Bakersfield, CA PMA 142,614
KK-Mart301 Gardner Field Road
Taft, CA SMA 90,000
LLowe's6200 Colony Street
Bakersfield, CA SMA 125,000
LLowe's7825 Rosedale Highway
Bakersfield, CA SMA 125,000
MT.J. Maxx3412 Ming Avenue
Bakersfield, CA SMA 29,000
OOrchard6465 Ming Ave
Bakersfield, CA PMA 70,344
TTarget1300 Wible Rd
Bakersfield, CA SMA 123,000
TTarget3880 Zachary Rd
Shafter, CA RMA-NW 123,000
VVons5360 Olive Dr
Bakersfield, CA SMA 54,000
Source: TNDG; Retail Tenant Directory, Trade Dimenstions Int'l
Freestanding Retail Stores in West Ming Retail Trade Area (MAP)0 mi
5
10
15
APPENDIX D:
SUPPLEMENTAL CUMULATIVE PROJECTS LIST
Table D-1Supplemental List of Cumulative ProjectsWest Ming Regional Trade AreaProject / ApplicantLocationMarket Area*NotesOld River Ranch
West of Old River Road, South of Panama Lane, North of Taft Highway.
PMA
Zoning recently approved; not site plans for retaildevelopment filed
Judkins/Quad-Progress
SWC of Panama Ln. and Gosford Rd.PMAN/A
Antongiovanni TrustSWC of Panama Ln and Ashe Rd.PMANo commercial components known at this timeBianchiNEC of Buena Vista Rd. and Taft HighwayPMANo commercial components known at this timeMcAllister Ranch
North of Panama Lane, East of Allen Road, West of Nord Road, South of SPRR
PMANo commercial components known at this time
OMAX, LLC
NWC of Taft Highway and Gosford Rd.SMA - Metro SWN/A
Bakersfield Sports Village
Northside of Taft Highway between Gosford Rd. and Ashe Rd.
SMA - Metro SWNo commercial components known at this timeSmithtechSEC of McCutchen Rd and Ashe Rd.SMA - Metro SWNo commercial components known at this timeFlying Seven VenturesSouthwest BakersfieldSMA - Metro SWNo commercial components known at this timeGatewaySouthwest BakersfieldSMA - Metro SWNo commercial components known at this timeMinaberriNEC of Engle Rd. and Ashe Rd.SMA - Metro SWNo commercial components known at this timeRosedale RanchKratzmeyer Rd and Santa Fe WaySMA - Metro N.O.R.
Subject of current litigation; no retail uses currently being processed
Source: City of Bakersfield, Planning Department, County of Bakersfield, Planning Department; TNDGNotes:*Individual sub-markets of West Ming Regional Trade Area