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HomeMy WebLinkAbout12/07/2021Staff: Committee Members: Chris Huot, Assistant City Manager Councilmember, Andrae Gonzales – Chair Councilmember, Ken Weir Councilmember, Eric Arias SPECIAL MEETING OF THE BUDGET AND FINANCE COMMITTEE of the City Council - City of Bakersfield Tuesday, December 7, 2021 12:00 p.m. City Hall South 1501 Truxtun Avenue, Bakersfield, CA 93301 First Floor, Caucus Room AGENDA 1.ROLL CALL 2.ADOPT FEBRUARY 23, 2021 AGENDA SUMMARY REPORTS 3.PUBLIC STATEMENTS 4.NEW BUSINESS A.Long Range Fiscal Model Project Update – Huot/McKeegan 5.COMMITTEE COMMENTS 6.ADJOURNMENT S: S:\Council Committees\2021\Budget and Finance\02_February Page 1 CH:pa/mc Committee Members Staff: Chris Huot Councilmember, Andrae Gonzales – Chair  Assistant City Manager Councilmember, Ken Weir Councilmember, Eric Arias REGULAR MEETING OF THE BUDGET AND FINANCE COMMITTEE Tuesday, February 23 2021 12:00 p.m. City Hall North – First Floor Conference Room A 1600 Truxtun Avenue, Bakersfield, CA 93301 AGENDA SUMMARY REPORT The meeting was called to order at 12:00 p.m. 1.ROLL CALL Committee members Present:Councilmember, Andrae Gonzales, Chair Councilmember, Ken Weir Councilmember, Eric Arias City Staff Present: Christian Clegg, City Manager Chris Huot, Assistant City Manager Jacqui Kitchen, Assistant City Manager Brianna Carrier, Administrative Analysts III Greg Pronovost, Technology Services Director Randy McKeegan, Finance Director Nick Fidler, Public Works Director Stuart Patteson, Assistant Public Works Director Joshua Rudnick, Deputy City Attorney Nina Carter, Homeless Services Principal Misty Eaton, Community Development Principal Planner Cecelia Griego, Economic Development Principal Planner Chris Mesa, Police Officer Additional Attendees Present: Members of the Public 2.ADOPT FEBRUARY 5, 2021 AGENDA SUMMARY REPORT The Report was adopted as submitted. 3.PUBLIC STATEMENTS Riddhi Patel provided comments regarding the pandemic and the community. /s/ Chris Huot DRAFT  S:\Council Committees\2021\Budget and Finance\02_February Page 2 CH:pa 4.NEW BUSINESS A.Discussion and Committee Recommendation Regarding Annual Audit Reports ending FY 2020 – McKeegan Finance Director McKeegan provided a summarization of the following audit reports for fiscal year 2020 included in the packet: Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR); Agreed Upon Conditions Report for fiscal year ended June 30, 2020; Auditor Communication with Those Charged with Governance (SAS 114 Letter); Independent Auditors Reports: o Compliance with Contractual Requirements relative to the Bakersfield Sub- regional Wastewater Management Plan; o Appropriations Limit Worksheet (GANN Limit) of the City of Bakersfield; o Mechanics Bank Area, Theater, Convention Center, Bakersfield Ice Sport Center & Spectrum Amphitheater; and Agreed Upon Conditions Report for Measure N/Public Safety and Vital Services (PSVS) Measure Finance Director McKeegan noted that there were two findings found in the internal control of the Agreed Upon Conditions Report. He added that procedures had been put in place to address the findings which included Supervisors reviewing the information for new vendors to mitigate the risk of creating fictitious vendors and creating a procedure manual for the new electronic timecard system to ensure they are approved accordingly. The Committee unanimously approved a motion to present the annual audit reports to the full City Council for acceptance. B.Discussion and Committee Recommendation Regarding FY 2021-22 CDBG, HOME, ESG Action Plan – Kitchen/Eaton/Carter Assistant City Manager Kitchen introduced Community Development Principal Planner Eaton who provided a PowerPoint presentation outlining the second year of annual entitlements of the five-year 2020-2025 Consolidated Plan (Plan). These entitlements help to improve the quality of life of low to moderate income neighborhoods, improve infrastructure in the neighborhoods, and promote job opportunities for low income individuals. The Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Community Development Block Grant Program (CDBG), HOME Investment Partnership (HOME), Emergency Shelter Grant (ESG), and Housing Opportunities for Persons with AIDS (HOPWA) entitlements for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 were not available at the time of the meeting; therefore, staff based the proposed budget using last year’s entitlements. The total proposed budget for CDBG, HOME, ESG, and HOPWA for FY 2021-22 is $6,435,432. FY 2021-22 Proposed CDBG Budget: The total resources available for FY 2021-22 are $3,870,192. This amount includes the CDBG entitlement of $3,862,192 and project program income of $8,000. Staff proposed the total resources be allocated as follows: Total Administration – 20% Cap: $772,438 Long Term Obligations - $375,200 Public Services: $190,000. Services include Fair Housing Program Services and Bakersfield Senior Center Support Services.   S:\Council Committees\2021\Budget and Finance\02_February Page 3 CH:pa  Low-Mod Benefit: $2,532,554. Services include Home Access Grant Program, Curb, Gutter, Sidewalk, and Reconstruction of several areas including: Union/Brundage Area (Phase 6), Madison Area, Oleander Area, Union and East Truxtun Area, Benton Area, McMurtrey Aquatic Center Improvements, Jefferson Park Improvements, Bakersfield Senior Center building demolition, and Mercy House Brundage Lane Navigation Center Art and Murals. FY 2021-22 Home Investment Partnership (HOME) Budget: Based on the previous year’s entitlement, the total resources available for FY 2021-22 is $1,607,271, 10% of which was set aside for administrative cost. This amount includes the HOME Entitlement of $1,527,271 and $80,000 of projected program income. In addition, there is $1,809,720 of uncommitted HOME funds from the previous years. Staff estimates that the total Program/Project Cost and Direct Delivery for FY 2021-22 is $3,264,264. This Program/Project cost includes: $229,091 in HUD mandated Community House Development Organization (CHDO) Set aside and $3,035,173 for New Construction.   FY 2021-22 Emergency Solutions Grant (ESG) Budget: Based on the previous year’s entitlement, the total resources available for FY 2021-22 is $326,368, 7.5% of which was set aside for administrative cost. Staff proposed the total resources be allocated as follows: Emergency Shelter: $301,890, Services include: Flood Ministries Street Outreach ($24,000), Bakersfield Homeless Center – Shelter ($70,000) The Mission of Kern County ($70,000) and Alliance Again Family Violence ($31,500). Homeless Prevention & Rehousing Project: Bakersfield Homeless Center – Rapid Rehousing and Prevention ($106,390). FY 2021-22 Housing Opportunities for Persons with AIDS (HOPWA) Budget: Based on the previous year’s entitlement, the total resources available for FY 2021-22 is $631,602, 3% of which is set aside for administrative costs. Staff proposes allocating $612,654 to Kern County Public Health to administer the program. Committee Chair Gonzales inquired about the process to determine which areas receive funding for street improvements and if it was possible to supplement funding for ongoing improvements in the Oleander area. Public Works Director Fidler stated data is gathered to determine which neighborhoods have residential landscaping or utility issues that conflict with the street standards. Staff then concentrates on areas with a higher number of conflicts. He added that CDBG funding would continue to be used to complete street improvements in that area. Assistant City Manager Kitchen noted that requests for funding are closely monitored and recommendations take into consideration all the necessary variables for street improvements. Committee Chair Gonzales requested staff provide a comprehensive guide for HOME Projects. Assistant City Manager Kitchen provided the Committee with a list containing a map identifying all the affordable housing projects funded since 2015. Committee member Arias inquired about the Down Payment Assistant Program. Community Development Principal Planner Eaton responded that the City partnered with the Ventura County Community Development who provided all the marketing material including locating qualifying borrowers for FY 2020-21. Borrowers are provided a loan by way of a grant to be used as down payment for a home purchase. It is a low interest rate bearing grant with deferred payments.   S:\Council Committees\2021\Budget and Finance\02_February Page 4 CH:pa The Committee unanimously approved a motion to present the proposed Action Plan to the full City Council for approval. C. Discussion and Committee Recommendations Regarding FY 2021-22 CDBG CV-3 Funds – Kitchen/Griego Economic Development Principal Planner Griego provided a verbal summarization of the memorandum included in the agenda packet regarding the supplemental Community Development Block Grant (CDBG-CV) and Emergency Solutions Grant (ESG-CV) funding made available through the US Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Recommended Cares Act Community Development Block Grant Funding due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. The entitlements are to be used to prevent, prepare for, and respond to the impacts of COVID-19. Committee member Arias inquired about the Bakersfield Senior Center (Center) facility project. Principal Planner Griego responded that the Center had received a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program grant from the US Environmental Protection Agency for environmental testing and some site plan costs. They also received a $25,000 grant to fund the demolition of an inhabitable building destroyed by a fire. The Committee unanimously approved a motion to incorporate the additional CDBG-VD and ESG-CV funding into FY 2019-2020 Annual Action Plan (Plan) and present the amended Plan to the full City Council for approval. 5. COMMITTEE COMMENTS Committee Chair Gonzales expressed his appreciation for staff’s dedication and work with all the programs discussed at the meeting. 6. ADJOURNMENT The meeting adjourned at 12:49 p.m. DRAFT  Documents Presented At The Special Budget & Finance Committee December 7, 2021 Meeting Long-Range Forecast & Fiscal Model Budget & Finance Committee Presentation Bob Leland, Special Advisor Management Partners November 29, 2021 2 About Management Partners of California cities with more than 100,000 people (53 of 59) Served 90% of service exclusively to local governments27+ years including generalists and subject-matter experts100+ associates successfully completed in 42 states Over 1,800 projects in Costa Mesa and San Jose, CA and Cincinnati, OH 3 national offices Our Services •Fiscal Planning & Budgeting •Operations Improvement •Strategic Planning •Service Sharing •Organization Analysis •Organization Development •Performance Management •Process Improvement •Facilitation and Training •Executive Recruitment •Executive Coaching •Have prepared forecast models for 46 local agencies•Managed Stockton & San Bernardino bankruptcies 3 Long-Term Financial Planning is a Best Practice •Why is regular long-term financial planning important? To improve credibility and build trust with citizens and stakeholders To provide early warning of adverse conditions and build the case for action To develop a mix of strategies for a range of foreseeable outcomes To improve budgeting accuracy and fiscal discipline To identify long-term impacts of policy decisions and promote sustainable solutions To meet rating agency expectations •Management Partner’s fiscal model Robust, flexible budgeting tool Well-tested, focus is on California cities No two models are alike, adapted to each city’s needs Provides foundation for future budget strategies City owns the model •Easy -to-use dashboard with control panel & charts •Forecast for 10 or 20 years•Historical data back to 2005•Extensive charting capabilities•Show alternate scenarios•Assumptions include: COLAs FTE growth Recessions Pension discount rate/return Merit increases, savings from employee turnover 4 Bakersfield Long-Range Forecast Model 011- General Fund 191- TOT Fund 012- Development Services 014/019- Measure N (PSVS) 5 Major Forecast Issues SALES TAXES •Revenues in FY21 soared by $16M each for City 1% rate & Measure N, compared to FY20 •Correcting for some FY21 overpayments still dramatically improves City’s long-term financial condition FISCAL CAPACITY •PSVS tax and sales tax performance closes revenue gap created by the Great Recession •Significant capacity now exists to fund new projects or staffing/service levels RECESSIONS •Pandemic recovery has been occurring much faster than originally projected •Forecast assumes seven-year economic cycle with the next recession occurring in 2027 PENSIONS •High CalPERS return in FY21 will reduce unfunded liabilities by $100M (20%) •Even using conservative returns, pension costs are relatively stable starting FY24 •Early pandemic forecast showed revenues flat or declining in FY21•By 3Q20, forecast showed pandemic impact not as great as first feared•4Q20 forecast recognized ongoing impact of significantly higher online sales Measure N revenues based on where goods are delivered, while City 1% is based on location of sale Measure N now raises more with its 1% rate than does the City 1% rate•2Q21 data shows marked rise for both taxes, based on stronger economy and local factors Overpayments in FY21 reflected as adjustments in FY22•Assumes future pre-recession growth at 2.6%6 Significant Growth in Sales Tax •FY00-08: Steady trend of growth in revenue per capita pre-Great Recession •Steep plunge in FY09-10, then some recovery, but per capita generally flat FY14-18, so gap widens compared to pre- recession trend •After FY18: Without PSVS, per capita revenue would begin to grow, but gap not closed With 1% PSVS tax, per capita revenue jumps significantly, exceeding pre-Great Recession trend 7 Closing the Revenue Gap Current fiscal capacity gives City opportunity to restore, and improve upon, prior service levels •Since 1927, recessions have occurred on average every 6.6 years (7.7 years with last 8 recessions since 1960)•Forecast assumes 7-year cycle, with moderate recessions starting in 2027 and the next in 2034 8 Recession Impacts •Shows revenue losses from Great Recession & pandemic Great Recession’s revenue impact was prolonged•Initial loss from pandemic was higher than in FY08, but impact was much shorter than originally projected •CalPERS approved 6.8% discount rate (assumed rate of return) starting FY24 Continuing historical trend would hit 6% in 20 years Past trend consistent with lower returns•CalPERS projects 6.2% returns over next 20 years under current portfolio FY21 return was well over historical average More investments in private equity and leveraging through borrowing will be required to achieve 6.8% target; means higher risk and volatility•Forecast assumes 6.2% returns and discount rate gradually declining to 6% 9 Pension: Historical Returns & Discount Rate 10.50%last 5 yrs 8.65%last 10 yrs 7.49%last 20 yrs 8.86%last 30 yrs Average Returns Max 86.895 Min - Gap 86.89 35.67255 Retirement (mil.) $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget1 1 Retirement (mil.) 40% $0 $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 $12,000,000 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 LT Trend ST Trend Forecast Budget YTD YTD Trend $0 $10,000,000 $20,000,000 $30,000,000 $40,000,000 $50,000,000 $60,000,000 $70,000,000 $80,000,000 $90,000,000 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 LT Trend ST Trend No Recession YTD Trend $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 Trend FY05-20 Trend FY17-20 Forecast Budget YTD Trend •Projections are volatile Changing returns, demographics, actuarial assumptions •Nov 2021 includes the 21.3% return in FY21, which will not affect rates until FY24 High return reduces City’s UAL from $504M in FY21 to $404M in FY22, a drop of $100M (down 20%)10 Pension: Revised Forecast April 2021 2020 CalPERS Valuation: 6.8% disc rate declining to 6% over 20 years, 6.2% avg return 2019 CalPERS Valuation: 7% disc rate declining to 6% over 20 years, 6.2% avg return November 2021 Max 86.895 Min - Gap 86.89 35.67255 Retirement (mil.) $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast BudgetMax86.895 Min - Gap 86.89 35.67255 Retirement (mil.) $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget Max 86.895 Min - Gap 86.89 35.67255 Retirement (mil.) $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast BudgetMax86.895 Min - Gap 86.89 35.67255 Retirement (mil.) $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget 11 Pension: Alternate Cost Scenarios 6.8% discount rate & 6.8% avg return [CalPERS actuarial assumptions] 6.8% discount rate & 6.2% avg return 6.8% disc rate declining to 6% over 20 years & 6.2% avg return [BASELINE] 6.8% disc rate declining to 6% over 20 years, with 5% avg return next 9 years & 6% thereafter 10-Year Forecast 12 Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Sales & Use Tax (mil.) $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Franchise Payments (mil.) $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Property Tax (mil.) $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget 13 10-Year General Fund Revenue Forecast Excludes PSVS tax FY22 Assessor values; thereafter, includes 2% inflator, ownership transfers and 1500 units/year growth HdL 2Q21 forecast includes significant growth in FY21 & adjustments in FY22 Model assumes moderate recession in FY27 FY10-FY13 included gas/electric surcharges that thereafter went to fund 316 for roads Cable adjusted for accruals Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Interfund Charges (mil.) $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Intergovernmental (mil.) $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget 14 10-Year General Fund Revenue Forecast FY20 & FY21 include impact of reimbursements related to one-time federal aid Varies based on receipt of grants Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Business License Tax (mil.) $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 $4.0 $4.5 $5.0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis All Other Revenue (mil.) $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Retirement (mil.) $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Health (mil.) $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Salaries & Benefits (mil.) $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget 15 10-Year General Fund Expenditure Forecast Based on CalPERS Pension Outlook (2020 valuation) with PEPRA transition over 15 years & 6.2% avg ROR; assumes discount rate decline from 6.8% to 6% over 20 years Assumes 2% COLAs, no FTE growth; starting FY22 assumes 3% vacancy rate Historically under budget; assumes 3% growth along long-term trend Includes part-time, overtime, vacancy savings; excludes health & retirement Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Total Personnel (mil.) $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget Total personnel costs consistent with both short and long-term trends Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Capital/Transfers Out (mil.) ($15) ($10) ($5) $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Internal Service Charges (mil.) ($5) $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Other Services/Supplies (mil.) $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget 16 10-Year General Fund Expenditure Forecast Consistent with long-term trend except for added vehicle replacement costs in FY21 FY22 per adopted budget, then 2.25% growth; historically well below adjusted budget (which includes unspent amounts carried over from prior year) Volatile historically, assumes $3M ongoing Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Total Revenue (mil.) $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget 17 10-Year Forecast Summary-General Fund •FY05-14: unassigned balance met reserve goal, cash basis reserve provided extra margin•FY15-21: unassigned balance below goal; including cash basis reserve, goal was met•FY22-24: balance is stable, meets goal•FY25 & after: unassigned balance over reserve goal represents new fiscal capacity Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Total Expenditures (mil.) $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Total Revenues (mil.) ($40) ($20) $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget 18 10-Year Forecast Summary-PSVS Fund •1% PSVS sales tax approved in 2018, spending has ramped up in recent years•Major assumptions starting FY23: 10 FTE added annually (50% Safety/50% Misc) Capital outlay $2M @3% growth Capital project/transfers $20M @3% growth•Under projected spending levels, fiscal capacity continues to grow Potential to add staff or fund projects HdL 2Q21 forecast includes significant growth in FY21 & adjustments in FY2 Model assumes moderate recession in FY27 Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Total Expenditures (mil.) $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Total Revenues (mil.) $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget 19 10-Year Forecast Summary-TOT Fund •Charts reflect major impact of pandemic in FY20 & FY21 Lower TOT & Convention Center revenues, closure of Center in late FY20 & FY21•Assumes TOT recovery by FY23, then follows long-term growth trend•Fiscal capacity of the fund grows steadily with payoff of Arena COPS in FY22 Potential to fund new debt or pay-go projects Spike in FY22 is budgeted $7.5M transfer in from ARPA Cntl-a Goto Dashboard Cntl-t Goto Trend FY21 Revenue Basis Total Expenditures (mil.) $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Trendline FY05-21 Trendline FY18-21 Forecast Budget 20 Major Areas of Forecast Volatility Vacancy Savings Cost Allocation Plan Use of ARPA Funds Economy/Pandemic Sales Tax Revenue Pension Costs TOT Revenue Fees/Other Revenue Property Tax Revenue COLAs/Benefits Staffing Levels Capital Spending ← Low Control High Control → ← Low Control High Control → ← L o w I m p a c t Hi g h I m p a c t → ← L o w I m p a c t Hi g h I m p a c t → 21 GF Sensitivity to Changes in Revenue Performance 100% of Baseline Forecast for Property & Sales Tax Revenue 99% of Baseline Forecast for Property & Sales Tax Revenue 98% of Baseline Forecast for Property & Sales Tax Revenue 97% of Baseline Forecast for Property & Sales Tax Revenue 22 PSVS Sensitivity to Changes in Revenue Performance 100% of Baseline Forecast for Sales Tax Revenue 98% of Baseline Forecast for Sales Tax Revenue 97% of Baseline Forecast for Sales Tax Revenue 99% of Baseline Forecast for Sales Tax Revenue Contact Information Bob Leland Senior Advisor, Management Partners rleland@managementpartners.com 530-219-5812