HomeMy WebLinkAboutAGRMT NO KRGSA18-006KRGSA 18-006
October 29, 2018
Tim Ashlock
c/o Buena Vista Water Storage District
P.O. Box 756
Buttonv,illow, CA 93206
Re: Reimbursement Agreement for Projected Water Budgets Developed with the C2VSim
Groundwater Model for the Kern County Sub -basin
DearMr.mrttin. A4shtocl_
The Kern River Groundwater Sustainability Agency (Kern River GSA) and the Buena Vista
Water Storage District (BVWSD) are currently participating in the Kern GSA's groundwater
modeling effort referred to as the Todd Groundwater Model of the Kent Sub -basin (Model).
Todd Groundwater is using the Department of Water Resources (DWR) C2VSim Model to
develop the Kern Sub -basin Water Budget. The Kern River GSA and BVWSD wish to continue
Model coordination efforts to simulate projected water budgets to assess and support future
sustainability for Groundwater Sustainability Plans being developed within the Kern Sub -basin.
Todd Groundwater's proposal to set up a 50 -year baseline and climate change baselines is
provided as Attachment 1. All parties agree to cost share this effort according to following terms
and conditions:
1. The participant signatories below will pay their share of the proposed budget of $335,768
as shown on Attachment 2 for the Todd Groundwater proposal dated September 25,
2018.
2. All payments shall be due 45 days after the receipt of invoice from the City of
Bakersfield.
3. It is understood that the proposed budget is an estimate only. If costs for the projected
water budget development modeling effort increase more than ten (10) percent over the
proposed budget, the increase must be approved by the BVWSD. Costs above the initial
proposed budget will be paid in the same percentages in the attached table, unless
otherwise agreed.
4. Costs will be reconciled at the end of the project and refunds or additional payments will
be due 45 days after the final accounting.
If the above terms and conditions are acceptable, please sign and date all copies of this letter and
return them to the Kern River GSA. A fully executed original will be returned to the BV W SD.
Sincerely, Accepted:
Buena Vista Water Storage District
�7
Rodney Palls,
Chairman
By:���
Tom+
Title: En54o,,r—MN -. <.-
Date: I O-31- l8
ACF.t:-Y
ORIGINAL
Attachment 1
TODD
GROUNDWATER
September 25, 2018
REVISED DRAFT PROPOSAL
To: Mark Mulkay, Art Chianello, and David Beard
Kern River Groundwater Sustainability Agency (KRGSA)
Patty Poire and Terry Erlewine
Kern Groundwater Authority (KGA)
From: Mike Maley, PG, CHG, Senior Hydrogeologist / Groundwater Modeler
Phyllis Stanin, PG, CHG, Vice President / Principal Geologist
Re: Proposal - Projected Water Budgets Developed with C2VSim
for the Kern County Subbasm
The KRGSA and KGA are cooperating on preparation of subbasin-wide water budgets for the
Kern County Subbasin in compliance with regulations for Groundwater Sustainability Plans
(GSPs). Todd Groundwater has been revising the California Central Valley Model (C2VSim)
developed by the Department of Water Resources (DWR) to provide a subbasin-wide tool for
application to this analysis. The objective of the C2VSim revision is to incorporate local
managed water supply and demand data into the model to provide a more accurate
simulation of historical groundwater conditions in the Kern County Subbasin. Model runs of
the revised C2VSim are currently underway to develop historical and current water budgets
for the Kern County Subbasin GSAs.
The next step in the water budget analysis is to simulate projected water budgets to assess
and support future sustainability for the Subbasin GSPs. The KRGSA and KGA wish to continue
the model coordination efforts for development of the projected future water budgets. The
analysis would use C2VSim to set up a SO -year baseline and climate change baselines, with
which to assess key GSP management actions. This proposal provides a scope of work for
Todd Groundwater to develop these baselines and conduct subbasin-wide water budget
modeling for projected future water budgets.
Approach for Developing Projected Water Budgets Using C2VSim
Development of the projected water budgets will be performed to comply with GSP
regulations and best management practices (BMPs), as appropriate. GSP regulations require
projected water budgets to estimate future baseline conditions of supply, demand, and
aquifer response to GSP implementation (§354.18(3)). Future baseline conditions are
developed over a 50 -year planning and implementation horizon. The approach to the baseline
development incorporates GSP requirements and also includes the use of:
2490 Mariner Square Loop, Suite 215 [Alameda, CA 945011510747 6920 1 totltlgroundwater.com [AOO�-F
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• 50 years of historical precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow information
as the future baseline hydrology condition
• recent land use, METRIC -based evapotranspiration, and urban population growth
information as the baseline condition for estimating future water demand
• recent water supply information as the baseline condition for estimating future
surface water supply, while applying the historical surface water supply reliability
identified in §354.18(c)(2)
• DWR Climate Change Guidance and Data Sets to incorporate the estimated climate
change conditions for the Kern County Subbasin
• specialized analysis of the Kern River watershed and estimated runoff volumes under
climate change conditions, being evaluated in a separate study by the Miller-Haggin
Group.
We will use the revised C2VSim to support GSP compliance for the projected water budgets.
Our preliminary analysis suggests an appropriate baseline period of 1960 to 2010 for the 50 -
year historical hydrology. This period will have near average conditionson the Kern River and
keep the baseline from ending in either an extreme drought (2012 to 2015) or extreme wet
year (2011).
The projected water budgets are required to evaluate the proposed GSP implementation plan
for the Kern County Subbasin. Our approach includes direct coordination with the KRGSA and
the other Kern County Subbasin GSAs to understand and incorporate each agenc/s estimated
future water supply, demand, managed aquifer recharge and groundwater banking activities
consistent with the implementation plans in the local GSPs.
A key feature of C2VSim is DWR's agricultural and urban water supply and demand
management module that dynamically simulates both surface water and groundwater
supplies based on demand estimates, as affected by usage and climatic conditions. C2VSim
also provides the capability to identify and evaluate of the level of uncertainty in the projected
water estimates through a sensitivity analysis of key parameters. Use of these modules, along
with a sensitivity analysis, will facilitate the analysis of future conditions.
PROPOSED SCOPE OF SERVICES
Our proposed scope of services incorporates our approach discussed above and is organized
around the GSP regulations for the projected water budgets in Section 354.18(3).
Task 1: Projected Baseline Development
Projected water budgets are required by GSP regulations to represent future conditions over
a 50 -year GSP planning and implementation horizon. A baseline condition will be developed
that projects water supply, demand and operations based on current land use requirements
over the subsequent 50 years. The baseline then serves as a basis of comparison for
evaluating proposed sustainability management actions and projects for achieving
sustainability over the planning and implementation horizon.
Projected Future Water Budgets
Kern County Subbasin GSAs 2 TODD GROUNDWATER
i AGENCY
ORIGINAL
Much of the projected baseline development is prescribed by DWR, which allows this task to
be conducted while historical and current water budgets are being finalized; this will assist in
expediting the schedule. Key required components for the Projected Future Baseline, as
summarized in the DWR Water Budget BMP, include the following:
• The projected baseline hydrology condition will be based on 50 -years of historical
precipitation and streamflow. As mentioned previously, our anticipated baseline
period is 1960 to 2010 to represent near average conditions on the Kern River and
prevent the baseline from ending in either an extreme drought (2012 to 2015) or
extreme wet year (2011).
• Surface water supply will be based on available information from DWR and others to
project future water imports from the State Water Project (SWP), Central Valley
Project (CVC) - Friant-Kern (FK) and Kern River diversions. It is anticipated that
sufficient information will be available by others for imported supply estimates; no
original analyses of future imported water supplies are assumed in this scope. For the
Kern River, recent diversion practices based on entitlements will be used to develop
a water use consistent with the baseline hydrology.
• The most recent available land use data, along with the associated water demands,
will be used to develop the entire 50 -year simulation period.
• Consumptive use for agriculture and undeveloped lands will be based on the recent
land use and METRIC -based evapotranspiration. Following DWR guidance, METRIC
data over the baseline period will be varied according to varying hydrologic conditions
(e.g.., water year type).
• Urban water demand will be based on projections from recent urban water
management plans and recent regulations for estimating future water use. Urban
demand will be estimated in the model based on projected urban population growth
and per capita water demand information (including recent regulatory guidance).
The results of this compilation will be summarized using tables that put the water budget
components into a consistent format to illustrate the potential range of conditions and
identify potential data gaps. An assessment of these data will be performed to determine the
overall strengths and weaknesses of the different data sources.
Task 2: Sustainability Alternatives Screening Analysis
In order to provide some guidance to Subbasin GSAs regarding the level of management
required to meet sustainability goals, a series of screening -level sensitivity analyses are
included in this scope. The analyses will provide information on where and how much
increases in supply or decreases in demand would satisfy sustainability criteria being
developed by KGA, KRGSA, and others. GSP regulations require that the projected water
budgets are developed using a consistent method over the entire Kern County Subbasin to
assess the sustainability of proposed groundwater management actions. This screening -level
sensitivity analysis will provide a systematic analysis to quantify the relative effectiveness of
conceptual management actions, while the GSAs are evaluating their own management
options.
Projected Future Water Budgets
Kern County Subbasin GSAs 3 TODD GROUNDWATER 1
I A('EF40*
(ORIGINAL
The sensitivity scenarios will be simulated using the projected future baseline and will
evaluate several basin -wide conceptual categories that would include the following:
• Alternatives for changing future groundwater supply such as increased managed
aquifer recharge, groundwater banking, urban water supply and/or surface water
reliability
• Alternatives for changing future groundwater demand such as agricultural use, urban
demand, and/or water conservation measures.
Task 2 will evaluate these conceptual groundwater management alternatives uniformly over
the area; however, results can be used to identify areas for targeted management by local
GSAs. Results from the sensitivity analysis can be developed by separate GSAs or hydrologic
zones. The sensitivity analysis will also help to quantify uncertainty associated with the
simulation of major categories of potential alternatives to achieve long-term sustainability
over time as required by DWR.
With these results, local GSAs will have preliminary model results of how potential
management actions would be anticipated to perform to help guide their decision making
when developing individual management actions. The results of the sensitivity analysis will
be presented at ajoint workshop and provided to each of the Kern County Subbasin GSAs (see
Task 8).
Task 3: Climate Change Baseline Development
Projected water budgets are required to evaluate the potential effects of climate change with
respect to achieving sustainability. For this purpose, DWR has issued the Guidancefor Climate
Change Data Use During Sustainability Plan Development Guidance Document that outlines
how DWR recommends that climate change be assessed under SGMA. Following this
guidance, we will incorporate the DWR data sets for climate change into C2VSim for Kern
County.
For Task 3, we will modify the Projected baseline conditions following DWR guidance and
using climate change data sets. DWR requires that the climate change is applied to the
Projected Baseline Condition based a 50 -year historical record that is representative of the
range of seasonal and annual climatic variability. DWR has provided two climate change data
sets. These include:
• Water budget representing projected 2030 climate conditions to evaluate projects
and actions that will evaluate sustainability under the "short-term' future conditions
compared to baseline conditions.
• Water budget representing conditions at 2070 climate conditions to show that
sustainability will be maintained into the planning and implementation horizon even
with reductions in natural hydrology (i.e., "long-term" future conditions), within 50
years after GSP approval.
To assist with the development of the Climate Change baseline, it is our understanding that
the Miller-Haggin Group has retained GEI Consultants to conduct a Kern River watershed
analysis following DWR guidance for climate change. In brief, that analysis will consider
Projected Future Water Budgets
Kern County Subbasin GSAs 4 TODD GROUNDWATER `1
1 AC=ENCY
reduced runoff in each of the sub -watersheds contributing to the Kern River and develop
revised streamflow estimates at First Point. These estimates will be used to reduce Kern River
water diversions from baseline conditions.
The results of the Climate Change Baselines will be compared to the historically -based
baseline to assess the potential effects of climate change on the Kern County Subbasin. The
climate -change baseline water budgets will be used for evaluating projected management
actions and projects to achieve sustainability in the Kern County Subbasin.
Task 4: Projected Future Sustainability Assessment
For Task 4, the projected management actions and projects are added to the baseline
conditions to assess the effectiveness of these measures in achieving sustainability goals over
the required planning horizon. We anticipate that Task 4 will provide a means to test and
verify different types and levels of management actions and projects.
To evaluate future sustainability, different scenarios will be developed based on input from
Kern County Subbasin GSAs of the elements of their proposed groundwater sustainability
plans. We will develop a data request to provide guidance to local agencies of the types of
data we need for the Projected Future Scenarios. The data request will focus on planned
projects and managed water supply information. We will compile and review the data
provided by local agencies to identify missing or incomplete water budget components. Based
on this information we will develop scenarios that contain management actions develop by
the GSAs.
The analysis can proceed in an iterative manner with management actions added to areas if
preliminary results suggest that sustainability goals are be maintained. Various model
scenarios will be developed by adding, removing, or revising various management actions. It
is assumed that KGA will provide direction on how management actions should be revised for
each scenario based on our presentation of simulation results of each scenario.
Due to schedule constraints, we assume that this sustainability assessment will be limited to
five (5) different subbasin scenarios. To further expedite the process, we propose that all
scenarios for Task 4 will be based on the 2030 Climate Change Baseline Conditions. This
limited number of scenarios does not allow for a separate analysis to be run for an individual
GSP or water district to analyze their local management actions and projects. Rather, GSP
elements will be combined to evaluate actions on a subbasin basis.
Task 4 results will provide projected future water budgets that will include the change in the
volume of water stored. The results of the Projected Future Sustainability Assessment will be
presented at a workshop (see Task 8). Results will be reported in tabular and graphical form
and provided to each of the Kern County Subbasin GSAs.
Task 5: Preferred Alternative Scenario and Assessment
Based on the results of Task 4, a Preferred Alternative will be selected that will include the
final sustainability management actions and projects that will be included in the Kern County
GSPs. The Preferred Alterative will be run using with all three baseline conditions (historically -
based, 2030 Climate -Change and 2070 Climate -Change).
Projected Future Water Budgets
Kern County Subbasin GSAs 5 TODD GROUNDWATER
IAG!l40Y
ORIGINAL
The results of the Projected Future Sustainability Assessment will be presented at a workshop
(see Task 8). The results of the Preferred Alternative will be processed to meet the GSP
reporting requirements from the SGMA requirements and DWR guidelines. Summary results
in tabular and graphical form and provided to each of the Kern County Subbasin GSAs for
inclusion in the GSPs. More detailed results will be developed that will be documented in the
Task 6 Technical Report.
Task 6: Technical Report
A technical report will be developed that documents the work performed for this scope of
work. The technical report will provide the technical basis for setting up the baseline,
documenting the model results, and developing the projected water budgets. The modeling
results and water budgets produced for the Technical Report will be consistent with DWR's
SGMA guidelines and BM Ps. It is anticipated that this report will provide sufficient compliance
for all GSAs in the Subbasin for the GSP requirements of current and historical water budgets.
The following subtasks are included in Task 5.
For costing purposes, we assume that the draft technical report will require two draft
versions. An Administrative Draft Technical Report will be prepared for stakeholder review
and comments. Comments will be incorporated into a Draft Technical Report. Electronic
submittal is assumed for both versions.
The Final Technical Report will address final comments and will be submitted to the GSAs for
GSP supporting documentation. For costing purposes, we assume FedEx delivery of 10 hard
copies for the Final Technical Report.
Task 7: Project Coordination and Communication
This task covers project coordination with the client throughout the project. Coordination will
include project planning, on-going communications and project status updates. We assume
that communication during the project will be conducted via emails, telephone and/or web
meetings, if needed. Project workshops are presented in Task 8.
Todd Groundwater will track schedule and budget monthly and track document requirements
for the GSP. Invoices will clearly show team members, hours, costs, and progress on project
tasks. A monthly progress report will be prepared for each invoice showing progress made
during the month, next steps for the following billing cycle, and status of both schedule and
budget.
Task 8: Projected Water Budget Workshops
Several project updates (via conference call) and three workshops are included in the scope
of work over the duration of the project to keep KRGSA and other Kern County Subbasin GSAs
up-to-date on the modeling process. We believe that this effort will support the overall
transparency of the modeling efforts and help to achieve acceptance of the results to keep
the GSPs on schedule to meet GSP deadlines. Workshops are planned to summarize the
results near the completion of the following tasks.
Task 1 and 2 Results
Projected Future Water Budgets
Kern County Subbasin GSAs 6 TODD GROUNDWATER
ACEE::.Y
Of31GINAl
• Task 3 and 4 Results
• Task S Results
The Task 5 workshop meeting is planned to present the methods, procedures and results used
for developing the Kern County Subbasin projected water budgets to the local agencies and
GSAs, and to discuss issues and concerns about the process. Feedback from the group will be
used to improve and refine the water budgets.
COST ESTIMATE AND SCHEDULE
A cost estimate summary is provided at the end of this text in Table 1 with a more detailed
cost estimate following in Table 2. Todd Groundwater has an existing scope and budget for
developing GSP projected water budgets for the KRGSA, which provides additional funding
for this total project. Table 1 shows the cost estimate for expanding Tasks 1 through 8
throughout the subbasin, the addition of the current KRGSA budget, and the total project
costs. As summarized on Table 1, the subbasin water budget analysis, less the amount
budgeted to KRGSA, is estimated to total $241,385 Costs include labor, fees, subconsultants
and expenses for each project task.
The Todd Groundwater Team can initiate the project upon receipt of the notice -to -proceed
and complete the project to meet the GSP deadline of January 31, 2020. Our proposed
schedule is provided by task in Table 3 and is consistent with the proposed KGA schedule.
Proposed workshop meetings are shown as diamonds.
With this aggressive schedule, time is of the essence. The schedule assumes close
coordination and cooperation with the Subbasin GSAs to meet this schedule. In order to
expedite the work, Todd Groundwater is retaining Dr. Charlie Brush, Ph.D., PE through his
modeling consulting firm, Hydrolytics, LLC. Dr. Brush has 20 -years of experience developing
groundwater models and was one of the original developers of C2VSim at DWR. He has
prepared four reports documenting C2VSim, authored peer-reviewed journal articles on the
model, and led workshops on IWFM/C2VSim. He brings unparalleled expertise to this project
and has already been working closely with DWR on the details of new climate change
requirements.
Projected Future Water Budgets
Kern County Subbasin GSAs 7 TODD GROUNDWATER ±
I A -ENZY
ORI(iIP1AL
TABLE 1—Projected Water Budget Cost Estimate Summary
KGA Cost Allocated Total Cost
TASKS Estimate KRGSA Budget Estimate
Task 1: Projected Baseline $30,324 $18,278 $48,602
Development
Task 2: Sustainability Alternatives
$27,605
$1,295
$28,900
Screening Analysis
Task 3: Climate Change Baseline
$28,024
$22,073
$50,097
Development
Task 4: Projected Future
$32,909
$25,786
$58,695
Sustainability Assessment
Task S: Preferred Alternative
$21,958
$1,326
$23,284
Scenario and Assessment
Task 6: Technical Report
$64,198
$15,000
$79,198
Task 7: Project Coordination and
$14,746
$1,795
$16,541
Communication
Task 8: Projected Water Budget
$21,621
$8,830
$30,451
Workshops
TOTAL
$241,385
$94,383
$335,768
Projected Future Water Budgets
Kern County Subbasin GSAs 8 TODD GROUNDWATER
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ORIGINAL
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